Disentangling sources of variability in decision-making

Abstract

Even the most highly-trained observers presented with identical choice-relevant stimuli will reliably exhibit substantial trial-to-trial variability in the timing and accuracy of their choices. Despite being a pervasive feature of choice behaviour and a prominent phenotype for numerous clinical disorders, the capability to disentangle the sources of such intra-individual variability (IIV) remains limited. In principle, computational models of decision-making offer a means of parsing and estimating these sources, but methodological limitations have prevented this potential from being fully realized in practice. In this Review, we first discuss current limitations of algorithmic models for understanding variability in decision-making behaviour. We then highlight recent advances in behavioural paradigm design, novel analyses of cross-trial behavioural and neural dynamics, and the development of neurally grounded computational models that are now making it possible to link distinct components of IIV to well-defined neural processes. Taken together, we demonstrate how these methods are opening up new avenues for systematically analysing the neural origins of IIV, paving the way for a more refined, holistic understanding of decision-making in health and disease. Identifying the psychological and neurobiological processes underpinning intra-individual variations in choice behaviour presents a formidable challenge. In this Review, Duffy et al. discuss how algorithmic models for teasing apart such sources of variability and advances in behavioural paradigm design and neurally grounded computational modelling are providing new avenues for systematic progress.