Evacuation planning in urban areas: A case study in Galați under military conflict conditions

Abstract

Emergency shelters in urban areas play an important role in providing temporary refuge to the population in military conflicts. The aim of this article is to examine the spatial alignment of shelters to the population distribution in the event of a war in Galaţi (Romania). The capacity of the emergency shelters, the possible number of evacuees and the transport behaviour of the inhabitants are the three main factors considered in these studies. The survey was conducted using the CATI technique with a sample of 405 residents (from 1 March to 12 April 2023). The results indicate that only a relatively small percentage of residents are willing to self-evacuate. Despite this, the situation can still be considered favourable as self-evacuation may cause a number of problems if many people who have no knowledge about wartime evacuation procedures use their own cars to self-evacuate. The analysis of the distribution of emergency services (fire brigades and the police force) in the city reveals that it is adequate relative to the population distribution. However, these forces are limited in number and can quickly become overwhelmed without proper management. Furthermore, the capacity of the existing emergency shelters in the studied city is insufficient, both for self-evacuation on foot or by car. Thus, new locations for emergency shelters have been recommended to be located in existing facilities in order to accommodate the largest possible number of people in the shortest possible time. The approach taken in this study can also be adopted to serve in other urban areas facing similar risks, emphasising the need for a tailored crisis management strategy that takes into account specific regional and population dynamics.