Crimes of the current: Natural disasters and crime in Kenya

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106982

Jaslin Kalsi , Robert Mackay , Astghik Mavisakalyan , Yashar Tarverdi

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Abstract

This paper studies the link between natural disasters and crime, drawing on a case study of Kenya and employing a mixed method approach. Matching data on 412 disaster locations from the Geocoded Disasters Dataset with data on over 9,500 individuals from the Kenyan Afrobarometer survey over the period from 2003 to 2014, we conduct a difference-in-differences analysis of the link between disaster exposure and experiences of crime, documenting a strong positive relationship. These findings are complemented by an analysis of primary data collected through 75 semi-structured interviews in Baringo region of Kenya which was severely impacted by the 2020 East Valley Rift flooding. The analysis of primary data confirms the positive relationship between disaster exposure and crime. To understand the possible mechanisms, we combine a descriptive quantitative analysis with qualitative content analysis. Both approaches suggest that cost-benefit considerations as well as stress induced by a disaster are likely at play in the observed patterns of increased crime in a post-disaster setting.

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当前的罪行：肯尼亚的自然灾害和犯罪

本文以肯尼亚为例，采用混合方法研究自然灾害与犯罪之间的联系。将地理编码灾害数据集中412个灾害地点的数据与2003年至2014年期间肯尼亚非洲晴雨表调查中9500多人的数据进行匹配，我们对灾害暴露与犯罪经历之间的联系进行了差异中差异分析，记录了强烈的正相关关系。这些发现得到了对肯尼亚巴林戈地区75次半结构化访谈收集的主要数据的分析的补充，该地区受到2020年东谷裂谷洪水的严重影响。对原始数据的分析证实了灾害暴露与犯罪之间的正相关关系。为了了解可能的机制，我们将描述性定量分析与定性内容分析相结合。这两种方法都表明，在观察到的灾后环境中犯罪增加的模式中，成本效益考虑以及灾难引起的压力可能起作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

World Development Multiple-

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

5.80%

发文量

320

期刊介绍： World Development is a multi-disciplinary monthly journal of development studies. It seeks to explore ways of improving standards of living, and the human condition generally, by examining potential solutions to problems such as: poverty, unemployment, malnutrition, disease, lack of shelter, environmental degradation, inadequate scientific and technological resources, trade and payments imbalances, international debt, gender and ethnic discrimination, militarism and civil conflict, and lack of popular participation in economic and political life. Contributions offer constructive ideas and analysis, and highlight the lessons to be learned from the experiences of different nations, societies, and economies.