Crimes of the current: Natural disasters and crime in Kenya

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106982

Jaslin Kalsi , Robert Mackay , Astghik Mavisakalyan , Yashar Tarverdi

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Abstract

This paper studies the link between natural disasters and crime, drawing on a case study of Kenya and employing a mixed method approach. Matching data on 412 disaster locations from the Geocoded Disasters Dataset with data on over 9,500 individuals from the Kenyan Afrobarometer survey over the period from 2003 to 2014, we conduct a difference-in-differences analysis of the link between disaster exposure and experiences of crime, documenting a strong positive relationship. These findings are complemented by an analysis of primary data collected through 75 semi-structured interviews in Baringo region of Kenya which was severely impacted by the 2020 East Valley Rift flooding. The analysis of primary data confirms the positive relationship between disaster exposure and crime. To understand the possible mechanisms, we combine a descriptive quantitative analysis with qualitative content analysis. Both approaches suggest that cost-benefit considerations as well as stress induced by a disaster are likely at play in the observed patterns of increased crime in a post-disaster setting.

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来源期刊

World Development Multiple-

CiteScore

12.70

自引率

5.80%

发文量

320

期刊介绍： World Development is a multi-disciplinary monthly journal of development studies. It seeks to explore ways of improving standards of living, and the human condition generally, by examining potential solutions to problems such as: poverty, unemployment, malnutrition, disease, lack of shelter, environmental degradation, inadequate scientific and technological resources, trade and payments imbalances, international debt, gender and ethnic discrimination, militarism and civil conflict, and lack of popular participation in economic and political life. Contributions offer constructive ideas and analysis, and highlight the lessons to be learned from the experiences of different nations, societies, and economies.