Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823

David J. Spielman , Serge Mugabo , Gracie Rosenbach , Sosthene Ndikumana , Gilberthe Benimana , Chantal Ingabire

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Abstract

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import pric-es without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

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危机中的肥料政策改革：来自卢旺达的证据

化肥补贴是撒哈拉以南非洲许多农业发展战略的一个突出特点，但很少有国家拥有必要的数据，能够在面对外部冲击时就其管理迅速作出决定。在2021-22年国际化肥价格快速上涨之后，卢旺达就是这种情况。在2019冠状病毒病大流行造成的经济衰退后财政空间有限的情况下，卢旺达政府旨在修订其肥料补贴制度，以适应肥料进口价格上涨，同时不影响其农业增长目标的进展。本文探讨了2020-23年期间影响卢旺达肥料补贴制度决策的经济分析和政策过程。本文的重点是设计和应用一个微观模拟模型，该模型几乎实时地估计了这一时期化肥价格上涨对作物生产的影响。然后探讨了随后的政策结果，强调了即使在危机中也可以削减补贴的范围，加强农业数据系统的至关重要性，以及面临类似挑战的国家的经验教训。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Food Policy 管理科学-农业经济与政策

CiteScore

11.40

自引率

4.60%

发文量

128

审稿时长

62 days

期刊介绍： Food Policy is a multidisciplinary journal publishing original research and novel evidence on issues in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of policies for the food sector in developing, transition, and advanced economies. Our main focus is on the economic and social aspect of food policy, and we prioritize empirical studies informing international food policy debates. Provided that articles make a clear and explicit contribution to food policy debates of international interest, we consider papers from any of the social sciences. Papers from other disciplines (e.g., law) will be considered only if they provide a key policy contribution, and are written in a style which is accessible to a social science readership.