Global Burden of Iodine Deficiency: Insights and Projections to 2050 Using XGBoost and SHAP

IF 8 1区医学 Q1 NUTRITION & DIETETICS

Advances in Nutrition Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI:10.1016/j.advnut.2025.100384

Dan Liang , Li Wang , Panpan Zhong , Jiuxiu Lin , Leyan Chen , Qifang Chen , Shuang Liu , Zhen Luo , Changwen Ke , Yingsi Lai

{"title":"Global Burden of Iodine Deficiency: Insights and Projections to 2050 Using XGBoost and SHAP","authors":"Dan Liang , Li Wang , Panpan Zhong , Jiuxiu Lin , Leyan Chen , Qifang Chen , Shuang Liu , Zhen Luo , Changwen Ke , Yingsi Lai","doi":"10.1016/j.advnut.2025.100384","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Iodine deficiency (ID) poses a significant global public health challenge. This study aimed to analyze trends from 1990 to 2021 and project future patterns ≤2050 using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model, with Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), to identify key factors and inform public health strategies. Data on ID from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were used to model and predict its burden ≤2050 using XGBoost, with SHAP enhancing model interpretability. In 1990, global incident cases of ID were 7.51 million (age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR]: 126.11/100,000), rising to 8.08 million by 2021 (ASIR: 105.99/100,000, a 15.96% decrease), and projected to reach 8.48 million by 2050 (ASIR: 108.20/100,000). Prevalent cases increased from 146.42 million in 1990 (age-standardized prevalence rate [ASPR]: 2801.80/100,000) to 180.81 million in 2021 (ASPR: 2213.98/100,000, a 20.98% decrease), with 194.51 million expected by 2050 (ASPR: 1900.01/100,000). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) dropped from 2.46 million in 1990 (age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate [ASDR]: 46.19/100,000) to 2.25 million in 2021 (ASDR: 27.67/100,000, a 40.10% decrease) but are projected to rise slightly to 2.51 million by 2050 (ASDR: 25.51/100,000). SHAP analysis identified iodized salt coverage as a key factor, with higher coverage levels associated with reduced ID burden in most countries. Women and people aged 10–30 y had higher incidence rates, although prevalence and DALYs peaked among those aged 20–45 y. Central and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will continue to bear the highest burden through 2050. The XGBoost+SHAP model identified age, sex, and iodized salt coverage as key factors, with women and younger populations being high-risk groups. Strengthening iodization programs, improving health care access, targeted education, and consistent monitoring of vulnerable populations are essential to mitigate future risks and improve health outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":7349,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Nutrition","volume":"16 3","pages":"Article 100384"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Advances in Nutrition","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2161831325000201","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"NUTRITION & DIETETICS","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Iodine deficiency (ID) poses a significant global public health challenge. This study aimed to analyze trends from 1990 to 2021 and project future patterns ≤2050 using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model, with Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), to identify key factors and inform public health strategies. Data on ID from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study were used to model and predict its burden ≤2050 using XGBoost, with SHAP enhancing model interpretability. In 1990, global incident cases of ID were 7.51 million (age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR]: 126.11/100,000), rising to 8.08 million by 2021 (ASIR: 105.99/100,000, a 15.96% decrease), and projected to reach 8.48 million by 2050 (ASIR: 108.20/100,000). Prevalent cases increased from 146.42 million in 1990 (age-standardized prevalence rate [ASPR]: 2801.80/100,000) to 180.81 million in 2021 (ASPR: 2213.98/100,000, a 20.98% decrease), with 194.51 million expected by 2050 (ASPR: 1900.01/100,000). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) dropped from 2.46 million in 1990 (age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate [ASDR]: 46.19/100,000) to 2.25 million in 2021 (ASDR: 27.67/100,000, a 40.10% decrease) but are projected to rise slightly to 2.51 million by 2050 (ASDR: 25.51/100,000). SHAP analysis identified iodized salt coverage as a key factor, with higher coverage levels associated with reduced ID burden in most countries. Women and people aged 10–30 y had higher incidence rates, although prevalence and DALYs peaked among those aged 20–45 y. Central and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will continue to bear the highest burden through 2050. The XGBoost+SHAP model identified age, sex, and iodized salt coverage as key factors, with women and younger populations being high-risk groups. Strengthening iodization programs, improving health care access, targeted education, and consistent monitoring of vulnerable populations are essential to mitigate future risks and improve health outcomes.

查看原文本刊更多论文

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Advances in Nutrition 医学-营养学

CiteScore

17.40

自引率

2.20%

发文量

117

审稿时长

56 days

期刊介绍： Advances in Nutrition (AN/Adv Nutr) publishes focused reviews on pivotal findings and recent research across all domains relevant to nutritional scientists and biomedical researchers. This encompasses nutrition-related research spanning biochemical, molecular, and genetic studies using experimental animal models, domestic animals, and human subjects. The journal also emphasizes clinical nutrition, epidemiology and public health, and nutrition education. Review articles concentrate on recent progress rather than broad historical developments. In addition to review articles, AN includes Perspectives, Letters to the Editor, and supplements. Supplement proposals require pre-approval by the editor before submission. The journal features reports and position papers from the American Society for Nutrition, summaries of major government and foundation reports, and Nutrient Information briefs providing crucial details about dietary requirements, food sources, deficiencies, and other essential nutrient information. All submissions with scientific content undergo peer review by the Editors or their designees prior to acceptance for publication.