Operational resilience modeling of cross-border freight railway systems: A study of strategies to improve proactive and reactive capabilities

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2025.110856

Haiwen Li , Lin Qi , Mudan Wang , Junying Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Cross-border freight railway systems (CBFRSs) are increasingly vulnerable to disturbances created by volatile international situations and worsening climate conditions. This study aims to develop measures for enhancing the operational resilience of CBFRSs against risks and uncertainties. A novel four-stage framework for studying the operational resilience of CBFRSs is proposed. Major disruptions affecting CBFRSs are identified, and resilience-enhancing strategies are presented. A hierarchical structure is then designed to divide operational resilience into proactive and reactive capabilities, using different metrics to categorize strategies for assessing these two capabilities. An evidence fusion–fuzzy Bayesian network model is proposed, employing triangular fuzzy numbers and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory to derive prior probabilities for disruptions and strategies, and conditional probabilities for disruption categories and resilience metrics. The actual train capacity, lost train capacity, and restored train capacity are introduced to quantify the operational resilience of CBFRSs. Using bidirectional reasoning and sensitivity analysis, the developed model simulates the evolution of operational resilience under multiple disruptions and various strategies, identifying the key strategies and pathways for enhancing resilience. A case study shows that enhancing resilience requires a holistic consideration of capabilities, metrics, and strategies, offering actionable insights for decision-making regarding the allocation of resilience measures in CBFRSs.

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.