Exploring the contribution of citizen science to statistically sound and risk-based surveillance of insect pests in the EU

Abstract

This report explores the integration of citizen science into the surveillance of insect pests, aiming to enhance statistically sound and risk-based surveys. The study, conducted by researchers from Wageningen University, focuses on three primary objectives. First, it compiles a comprehensive inventory of citizen science initiatives across Europe, identifying 81 projects from 21 countries that contribute significant biodiversity data. Second, it develops a statistical methodology to estimate the probability of pest detection using opportunistic, presence-only data from citizen science. This methodology is tested on three insect pests: Popillia japonica, Agrilus planipennis, and Anoplophora chinensis, demonstrating that citizen science can meaningfully complement official surveys. Third, the report provides guidelines for incorporating these findings into existing tools and methods used by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and National Plant Protection Organizations (NPPOs). The results indicate that citizen science can increase the overall confidence in pest freedom and reduce the required sample sizes for official surveys. However, the study also highlights the spatial and temporal biases inherent in citizen science data and the need for further research to optimize its integration into pest surveillance frameworks.