Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Horticultural Crop Production: Evidence From Turkiye

Abstract

Potatoes, tomatoes, and chili peppers are commonly used in our daily diets as primary vegetable food items. However, producing nutritious, fresh, and sustainable vegetables in the context of climate change is a major challenge for both developed and developing countries. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on horticultural crop production, including potatoes, tomatoes, and chili peppers in Turkiye from 1990 to 2020. Using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) estimation technique, we demonstrate that climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation changes benefit potato yields in both the long and short term. Conversely, CO₂ emissions have a positive impact on potato yields in the long term, but a negative impact in the short term. Furthermore, the results show that temperature fluctuations have detrimental effects on tomato production in the short and long term. On the other hand, increased rainfall and CO₂ emissions positively influence tomato yields over the long term. Meanwhile, temperature changes and CO₂ emissions boost short- and long-term yields. Besides, the cultivated area and fertilizer use contribute significantly to the production of potatoes, tomatoes, and chilies in the short and long term. Our study suggests that implementing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures can effectively address the challenges of climate change and promote the sustainable production of vegetables.