When the State steps down: Reduced police surveillance and gang-related deaths in Brazil

Abstract

Violent crime is prevalent in developing countries, requiring substantial investments in law enforcement. This paper shows how police surveillance is crucial to deterring homicides in violent areas. I investigate the impact of reduced law enforcement on crime by leveraging data on police strikes, violent deaths, victims’ records, and criminal groups. Following a police strike, homicides in Brazilian states increase temporarily by 45%, and 88% of deaths in neighborhoods with many criminal groups are of suspected gang members. My theoretical model describes the mechanism behind increased killings, demonstrating that police strike amplifies the expected gains from gang conflicts and retaliation. This pushes criminals to attack rivals, even when territories are evenly divided.