Energy transition and decarbonization of road transportation: A case study of São Paulo’s Race to Zero by 2050, Brazil

Abstract

The transportation sector is essential for climate change mitigation, especially in reducing fossil fuel dependence. Brazil, a top 10 automotive market, faces significant challenges in decarbonizing its transportation sector, with São Paulo state, the fourth-largest emitter, playing a pivotal role. This study examines the São Paulo State Energy Plan 2050 Race to Zero (PEE 2050), focusing on road transport. It reviews São Paulo’s historical energy actions, integration with climate policies, global and regional trends in transport electrification and biofuels, and energy demand projections under an emission mitigation scenario. By 2050, the scenario predicts a 41% reduction in diesel consumption, widespread vehicle electrification, a 99% drop in gasoline use for light vehicles, and increased biofuel demand. Biomethane use is projected at 1.5 billion m${}^3$, ethanol demand at 13 billion liters for passenger cars, and higher blending rates for biodiesel and green diesel. Hydrogen is expected to complement the energy mix post-2040, supported by advances in storage and global investments. The study outlines five critical fuel transition pathways and policy measures essential for decarbonization. It concludes that PEE 2050 offers innovative methodologies and scenarios, providing valuable insights for policymakers, stakeholders, academia, and the public, advancing energy transition and decarbonization in São Paulo and Brazil.