Global burden, risk factors, and projections of early-onset dementia: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

IF 12.5 1区医学 Q1 CELL BIOLOGY

Ageing Research Reviews Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.arr.2024.102644

Shixing Feng , Tianyi Wang , Yang Su , Jinlong Yan , Yiheng Wang , Zhenqiang Zhang , Chaohui Yin , Huaqiang Zhai

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Despite increasing global awareness of dementia, reliable estimates of the disease burden associated with Early-Onset Dementia (EOD) remain insufficiently quantified. This study aims to estimate the disease burden of EOD, analyze the burden attributable to risk factors from 1990 to 2021, and project these trends to 2050 at global, regional, and national levels, providing essential data to inform public health policy.

Methods

By utilising data from the GBD 2021 database, this study analysed metrics such as age-standardized prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (AS-DALYs) for EOD. Joinpoint Regression analysis was used to calculated average annual percent changes (AAPCs) of ASPR, ASMR, and AS-DALYs. Then, the disease burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body-mass index (BMI), and tobacco were also reported. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project global ASPR, ASMR and AS-DALYs, as well as ASMR and AS-DALYs attributed to the three risk factors from 2022 to 2050.

Results

In 2021, the global case numbers of prevalence, mortality and DALYs for EOD were 7.75 (95 %UI: 5.82, 10.08) million, 73,386 (14,059, 232,169), and 3.77 (1.69, 8.88) million. Despite large increases in case numbers, AAPCs of ASR (0.08 % [0.02, 0.14], 0.07 % [0.05, 0.1], and 0.08 % [0.05, 0.1]) kept stable. Females exhibited higher case numbers and ASR across all disease burden indicators than males. Region- and country-level geographical heterogeneities were evident. Furthermore, global ASMR and AS-DALYs associated with high BMI and high FPG showed a steady increase, while the growth in ASMR and AS-DALYs attributable to tobacco has declined. To 2050, global case numbers of prevalence, mortality and DALYs for EOD will continue to rise, but ASRs won't change considerably. Females are anticipated to remain at a higher risk. The disease burden associated with high BMI and high FPG are expected to persist in their upward trends, whereas that related to tobacco are projected to decline.

Conclusion

The increasing burden of EOD underscores the critical need for tailored public health strategies and policies, a unique challenge underrecognized before.

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早发性痴呆的全球负担、风险因素和预测：来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的见解

背景：尽管全球对痴呆症的认识不断提高，但与早发性痴呆症（EOD）相关的疾病负担的可靠估算仍未充分量化。本研究旨在估算早发性痴呆的疾病负担，分析1990年至2021年风险因素造成的负担，并在全球、地区和国家层面预测这些趋势到2050年的变化，从而为公共卫生政策提供重要数据：本研究利用 GBD 2021 数据库的数据，分析了 EOD 的年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）、死亡率（ASMR）和残疾调整生命年（AS-DALYs）等指标。采用连接点回归分析法计算 ASPR、ASMR 和 AS-DALYs 的年均百分比变化 (AAPC)。然后，还报告了高空腹血浆葡萄糖（FPG）、高体重指数（BMI）和烟草造成的疾病负担。最后，采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测了2022年至2050年全球ASPR、ASMR和AS-DALY，以及归因于这三种风险因素的ASMR和AS-DALY：2021 年，全球 EOD 患病人数、死亡率和残疾调整寿命年数分别为 775 万（95%UI：582 万，108 万）、73386 万（14059 万，232169 万）和 377 万（169 万，888 万）。尽管病例数大幅增加，但 ASR 的 AAPCs（0.08% [0.02, 0.14]、0.07% [0.05, 0.1]和 0.08% [0.05, 0.1]）保持稳定。在所有疾病负担指标中，女性的病例数和 ASR 均高于男性。地区和国家层面的地域异质性十分明显。此外，与高体重指数和高血脂相关的全球ASMR和AS-DALYs呈稳步上升趋势，而与烟草相关的ASMR和AS-DALYs的增长则有所下降。到 2050 年，全球 EOD 患病率、死亡率和残疾调整寿命年数将继续上升，但 ASR 不会有很大变化。预计女性的风险仍然较高。与高体重指数和高血脂有关的疾病负担预计将保持上升趋势，而与烟草有关的疾病负担预计将下降：EOD 带来的日益沉重的负担凸显了制定有针对性的公共卫生战略和政策的迫切需要，这是一项独特的挑战，但之前并未得到充分认识。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ageing Research Reviews 医学-老年医学

CiteScore

19.80

自引率

2.30%

发文量

216

审稿时长

55 days

期刊介绍： With the rise in average human life expectancy, the impact of ageing and age-related diseases on our society has become increasingly significant. Ageing research is now a focal point for numerous laboratories, encompassing leaders in genetics, molecular and cellular biology, biochemistry, and behavior. Ageing Research Reviews (ARR) serves as a cornerstone in this field, addressing emerging trends. ARR aims to fill a substantial gap by providing critical reviews and viewpoints on evolving discoveries concerning the mechanisms of ageing and age-related diseases. The rapid progress in understanding the mechanisms controlling cellular proliferation, differentiation, and survival is unveiling new insights into the regulation of ageing. From telomerase to stem cells, and from energy to oxyradical metabolism, we are witnessing an exciting era in the multidisciplinary field of ageing research. The journal explores the cellular and molecular foundations of interventions that extend lifespan, such as caloric restriction. It identifies the underpinnings of manipulations that extend lifespan, shedding light on novel approaches for preventing age-related diseases. ARR publishes articles on focused topics selected from the expansive field of ageing research, with a particular emphasis on the cellular and molecular mechanisms of the aging process. This includes age-related diseases like cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disorders. The journal also covers applications of basic ageing research to lifespan extension and disease prevention, offering a comprehensive platform for advancing our understanding of this critical field.