Impact analysis of uncertainty in thermal resistor-capacitor models on model predictive control performance

Abstract

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is extensively utilized for optimal control in building systems. Despite substantial research being dedicated to exploring the impact of uncertainties in external and internal disturbances on the performance of MPC, the existing studies neglect the potential impact of uncertainties in model parameter identification on control performance. To address this gap, this study quantifies the impact of model uncertainty on MPC performance through a test case in a virtual environment. Various levels of uncertainties for parameters R and C are artificially introduced to assess the MPC performance. The causes of the impact of model uncertainty on control performance are further explored through analysis. We select a first-order RC model to modelling building thermal dynamics. MPC is employed to optimize the heat pump signal with the goal of minimizing the energy cost while maintaining thermal comfort. The simulation results demonstrate that a negative deviation in model parameter identification has a more pronounced impact on MPC performance than a positive deviation, which has a negligible effect on MPC control performance. Deviations in parameters from their true values affect both heat losses from the zone and thermal capacity, thereby influencing the estimated temperature by the RC model. Consequently, these factors, in turn, affect the system’s control decisions, leading to variations in the objective function values. This study can provide an insight into the relationship of model parameters uncertainties and MPC performance, and facilitate the practical application of MPC in buildings.