Changing patterns and determinants of China's interprovincial migration: Evidence from the 2020 census

Abstract

Interprovincial migration in China has changed in recent years due to the socioeconomic transformation. Yet, less attention has been paid to the current spatial patterns of interprovincial migration, especially the spatial heterogeneity of the determinants. Based on the newly released 2020 census data, this study explored the spatial patterns and determinants of interprovincial migration in China using a spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression. The results revealed multiple trends in interprovincial migration, including flow from developing provinces in the central region to eastern and western regions and returning flow from developed to developing provinces in the central and western regions. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations remained centres of population inflow. Moreover, key western development areas, such as the Chengdu-Chongqing area and Xinjiang, emerged as centres of population inflow. Economic and social development, social safety, and living environment significantly and positively affected interprovincial migration. Furthermore, significant spatial heterogeneity in factors influencing migration was detected. The findings provide a systematic understanding of China's interprovincial migration in 2020 and the spatial heterogeneity of determinants can guide the population development strategy design of governments.