A hybrid predictive model with an error-trigger adjusting method of thermal load in super-high buildings

Abstract

The precise prediction of thermal load has consistently garnered attention owing to its significant impact on energy conservation in buildings. The methodologies employed primarily concentrate on modeling within steady-state conditions, utilizing time-series data or mechanism model on fixed parameters. However, given the pronounced time-varying and multifaceted disturbance characteristics associated with building loads, current approaches exhibit constrained efficacy in addressing abrupt fluctuations in demand load and managing data noise. This limitation consequently undermines the accuracy of predictions. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model and an error-trigger adjusting strategy for predicting the thermal load in super-high buildings. The model is constructed by combining a thermodynamic model and an error cancellation model. The former, derived from an examination of the variations of material and energy in buildings, is proposed in the form of an approximate resistance-capacitance structure. The latter is developed using a wavelet threshold denoising technique, in conjunction with a convolutional neural network and a long short-term memory network. A self-adaptive state transition algorithm has been proposed, which relies on dynamically adjusting factors within the feasible region to optimize the selection of unknown parameters in the thermodynamic model. To enhance the flexibility of the hybrid model in effectively respond to the intricacies and fluctuations within the thermal conditions of buildings, an error-trigger adaptive updating strategy and a parameter calibration method based on sensitivity analysis are established. The real-world application results demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented hybrid model and the adjusting strategy.