Exploring the dynamics of the transport system energy consumption in Australia − A preliminary systems modelling effort

Abstract

In the face of an ever-increasing trend in the Australian transport demand with minimal improvement in fuel efficiency, petroleum products continue to dominate the primary energy source for the transport sector. The persistence of this reliance hinges on the urgent formulation and robust implementation of effective policies. This paper endeavours to elucidate how the application of system dynamics modelling can facilitate the development and assessment of efficacious policies to steer the trajectory of transport energy consumption in Australia. To illustrate this approach, we present two compelling case studies − the urban passenger transport system in New South Wales (NSW) and the freight transport system in Australia. The first case study explores the intricate dynamics of urban passenger transport mode choice, which shapes different pathways for energy consumption. These pathways are influenced by relative vehicle utility, corresponding to changes in GDP per capita, congestion levels, toll and fuel costs, and historical travel patterns. The second case study delves into Australia’s complex dynamics of heavy vehicle fleet transition. This transition is contingent on many variables, such as changes in GDP, freight tasks, infrastructure capacity requirements, operational and capital costs of various heavy vehicle classes, and fluctuating fuel costs, among others. Simulation results present the dynamic interplay between supply and demand factors. This showcases how an integrated system dynamics model of the transport system can be developed as a holistic policy assessment tool to achieve a balanced energy consumption in the transport system and thereby the sustainability goals. This study calls for more in-depth research about this problem to support policymakers with a decision-support tool to assist scenario analysis and intervention design over time toward achieving sustainable development goals within Australia’s transport system.