Service risk evaluation of telecommunication core network: A perspective of routing resilience

Abstract

The increasing dependence on telecommunication networks for digitalization raises apprehensions about their vulnerability to disruptions, potentially impacting service performance. Classic risk analysis for telecommunication networks often overlooks the compensating effect of rerouting and its resulting resilience. Our study is devoted to conducting an evaluation of service risk within telecommunication core networks, with a particular emphasis on rerouting resilience. Telecommunication core networks operate on a large scale, where various autonomous systems interconnect through pivotal anchor points. Its routing is typically governed by multiple protocols, including Interior Gateway Protocol and Border Gateway Protocol. We apply percolation theory and Monte Carlo Tree Search to effectively analyze the potential service risk and sequential rerouting effects caused by disruptions marked by a noteworthy probability and substantial impact. Our findings highlight the dual nature of rerouting: it enhances service connectivity while potentially increasing service flows in nearby routers, leading to heightened time delays and packet loss ratios. To comprehensively assess network service risk considering this double-edged sword impact, we devise a performance vector covering service connectivity, time delay, and packet loss across various data transmissions and disruptions. The overall approach is tested on two telecommunication core networks.