Risk analysis of weather-related railroad accidents in the United States

Abstract

Global climate change has led to more frequent extreme weather events in recent decades, and this has impacted critical infrastructure such as railway systems. Although train accidents caused by extreme weather events are not uncommon, the level of their risk is foreseen to rise to an unacceptable level. As a result, proper data collection and analysis for train accident related to extreme weather are pertinent to developing an effective railway climate change adaptation plan. This paper presents a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of weather-related railroad accidents in the United States. The analysis comprises time series, spatial, and causal elements to understand the temporal trends of weather-related railroad accidents, the predominant type of weather causes, and the effect of regional meteorological characteristics on them. The results showed that the likelihood of weather-related railroad accidents varies by meteorological regions and does not show a clear increasing or decreasing trend, but their above-average severity indicates opportunities to mitigate the risk in light of the projected increasing frequency. Results of this research contribute to better understanding of railway extreme weather risk and serve as a foundation for future research that addresses the effect of climate change on railroad system and develops proper railway climate change adaptation plans.