China's provincial optimum population sizes under SSP-RCP scenarios

IF 2.6 2区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY
Xinyan Huang, Xiangqi He, Gaoxiang Gu
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Abstract

Climate change poses new challenges to achieving a balanced population distribution. Predicting the impact of development patterns using climate change scenarios can offer more precise insights into environmental and social risks. By adopting the possibility–satisfiability (P–S) model, this study investigates the optimum population sizes for the 31 provincial districts of China by 2035 and 2050 under seven shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Results indicate that under SSP2-4.5 scenario, which maintains current development patterns, the optimum human population (OHP) ranges from 985 million to 717 million in 2035 and from 902 million to 623 million by 2050 at different P–S values, respectively. The SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios offer promising prospects by carrying the largest optimum population size. Therefore, China's future development depends on choosing a sustainable path that prioritizes the growth of the OHP. The optimum population sizes of provinces under unbalanced development routes SSP4-3.4 and SSP4-6.0 scenarios are mainly limited by economic development, while those of the regional competition route SSP3-7.0 scenario are limited by both economic and climatic pressures. Under the fossil fuel route SSP5-8.5 scenario, climate deterioration imposes severe constraints on optimum population size. The optimum population scales of the eastern coastal area with high urbanization levels and the northwest area with harsh environments are subject to natural conditions. In addition, the central and western regions encounter population size limitations due to insufficient economic development. Notably, China's population distribution remains concentrated in the east and sparse in the west, flanking the Hu Huanyong Line (Hu Line), with minimal expected changes in the future. By studying the spatial distribution of the optimum population under different SSP-RCP scenarios, this study provides theoretical support for government decision-making in the context of future climate change.

中国各省在 SSP-RCP 情景下的最佳人口规模
气候变化对实现人口均衡分布提出了新的挑战。利用气候变化情景预测发展模式的影响,可以更准确地洞察环境和社会风险。本研究采用可能性-可满足性(P-S)模型,探讨了在七种共享社会经济路径-代表性浓度路径(SSP-RCP)情景下,中国 31 个省级行政区在 2035 年和 2050 年的最佳人口规模。结果表明,在维持现有发展模式的 SSP2-4.5 情景下,在不同的 P-S 值下,2035 年的最佳人口规模(OHP)分别为 9.85 亿至 7.17 亿,2050 年为 9.02 亿至 6.23 亿。其中,SSP1-1.9 和 SSP1-2.6 方案的最佳人口规模最大,前景看好。因此,中国未来的发展取决于选择一条可持续发展的道路,优先发展超高人口规模。在非均衡发展路线 SSP4-3.4 和 SSP4-6.0 情景下,各省的最佳人口规模主要受经济发展的限制,而在区域竞争路线 SSP3-7.0 情景下,各省的最佳人口规模则受到经济和气候压力的双重限制。在化石燃料路线 SSP5-8.5 情景下,气候恶化严重制约了最佳人口规模。城市化水平较高的东部沿海地区和环境恶劣的西北部地区的最佳人口规模受到自然条件的制约。此外,中西部地区由于经济发展不足,人口规模也受到限制。值得注意的是,中国的人口分布仍然集中在东部地区,而在胡焕庸线(胡线)两侧的西部地区则较为稀疏,预计未来变化极小。本研究通过研究不同 SSP-RCP 情景下的最优人口空间分布,为未来气候变化背景下的政府决策提供理论支持。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
12.50%
发文量
87
期刊介绍: Population, Space and Place aims to be the leading English-language research journal in the field of geographical population studies. It intends to: - Inform population researchers of the best theoretical and empirical research on topics related to population, space and place - Promote and further enhance the international standing of population research through the exchange of views on what constitutes best research practice - Facilitate debate on issues of policy relevance and encourage the widest possible discussion and dissemination of the applications of research on populations - Review and evaluate the significance of recent research findings and provide an international platform where researchers can discuss the future course of population research
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