ETHOS.ActivityAssure—An open-source validation framework for synthetic European activity profiles

Abstract

The simulation of human behavior is an essential component in the domain of energy demand modeling. However, due to its diverse nature, it is often unclear whether a simulated behavior pattern is fitting to certain contexts. Combined with the poor availability of appropriate activity data, this makes proper validation of behavior models difficult. Existing validation approaches are limited and specialized to the respective use case, and are therefore not reusable or comparable. To address this issue, the new open-source framework ETHOS.ActivityAssure is presented for evaluation of generated activity profiles, supporting the validation of behavior models. For this purpose, an aggregated activity dataset is created from restricted European time use data and published to ensure reusability. Validation is conducted through a set of indicators and comparative plots, taking into account activity duration, frequency, and time. A categorization of person types and activities enables mapping to result categories commonly used in behavior models. The framework's capabilities are demonstrated on the residential demand model LoadProfileGenerator. The developed framework allows for consistent and reproducible validation of synthetic activity profiles targeting Europe, without requiring access to confidential data. This offers the opportunity to enhance both new and existing behavior models by identifying flaws, compare multiple modeling approaches, and thoroughly evaluate model quality for diverse target purposes.