Fuelling the pandemic: The impact of fuel prices on COVID-19

Abstract

In 2022 the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with a surge in global fuel prices, particularly affecting Italy. This study explores the impact of rising fuel costs on public transportation usage and its influence on the spread of airborne viruses. As fuel prices increased, private vehicle users were incentivized to shift to public transportation, raising concerns about a potential rise in COVID-19 cases. Using a hybrid model with F-GLS estimators, we find that higher fuel prices are correlated with increased COVID-19 cases, though this effect diminishes with greater public transportation availability. We estimate that when public transportation capacity falls below 6,500 seats per capita per kilometre, case numbers rise. Thus, robust public transportation systems may help limit the spread of airborne viruses, while inadequate systems could exacerbate transmission.