Maximum entropy-based modeling of community-level hazard responses for civil infrastructures

IF 9.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL
Xiaolei Chu, Ziqi Wang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Perturbed by natural hazards, community-level infrastructure networks operate like many-body systems, with behaviors emerging from coupling individual component dynamics with group correlations and interactions. It follows that we can borrow methods from statistical physics to study the response of infrastructure systems to natural disasters. This study aims to construct a joint probability distribution model to describe the post-hazard state of infrastructure networks and propose an efficient surrogate model of the joint distribution for large-scale systems. Specifically, we present maximum entropy modeling of the regional impact of natural hazards on civil infrastructures. Provided with the current state of knowledge, the principle of maximum entropy yields the “most unbiased“ joint distribution model for the performances of infrastructures. In the general form, the model can handle multivariate performance states and higher-order correlations. In a particular yet typical scenario of binary performance state variables with knowledge of their mean and pairwise correlation, the joint distribution reduces to the Ising model in statistical physics. In this context, we propose using a dichotomized Gaussian model as an efficient surrogate for the maximum entropy model, facilitating the application to large systems. Using the proposed method, we investigate the seismic collective behavior of a large-scale road network (with 8,694 nodes and 26,964 links) in San Francisco, showcasing the non-trivial collective behaviors of infrastructure systems.
基于最大熵的民用基础设施社区级灾害响应建模
在自然灾害的干扰下,社区级基础设施网络的运行类似于多体系统,其行为来自于单个组件动态与群体相关性和相互作用的耦合。因此,我们可以借鉴统计物理学的方法来研究基础设施系统对自然灾害的响应。本研究旨在构建一个联合概率分布模型来描述基础设施网络的灾后状态,并为大规模系统提出一个联合分布的高效替代模型。具体而言,我们提出了自然灾害对民用基础设施区域影响的最大熵模型。根据目前的知识水平,最大熵原理可为基础设施的性能提供 "最无偏见 "的联合分布模型。在一般形式下,该模型可以处理多变量性能状态和高阶相关性。在二元性能状态变量及其平均值和成对相关性的特殊但典型的情况下,联合分布可还原为统计物理学中的伊辛模型。在这种情况下,我们建议使用二分高斯模型作为最大熵模型的有效替代物,以方便应用于大型系统。利用所提出的方法,我们研究了旧金山一个大型道路网络(有 8,694 个节点和 26,964 个链接)的地震集合行为,展示了基础设施系统的非难集合行为。
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来源期刊
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程:工业
CiteScore
15.20
自引率
39.50%
发文量
621
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.
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