Probabilistic seismic risk analysis of electrical substations considering equipment-to-equipment seismic failure correlations

Abstract

When an earthquake occurs, electrical equipment in a substation exhibits a certain level of seismic failure correlation since they suffer similar ground motions and share similar structural characteristics. However, this equipment-to-equipment seismic failure correlation (E2ESFC) was neglected in previous substation-level probabilistic seismic risk analyses due to the lack of awareness and practical approach. To investigate the effect of different degrees of the E2ESFC on the substation seismic risk, an efficient method for considering partially correlated seismic failure was proposed. The concepts of “damage demand probability” and “damage capacity probability” were derived from the equipment's fragility curve. Then the partial correlation of equipment's capacity probabilities can be easily introduced and incorporated into the substation-level risk analysis through the combination of Copula functions and the Monte Carlo simulation. A case study on a real-world 220/110 kV substation using an equi-correlation model demonstrated that ignoring the E2ESFC among the same type of equipment will lead to an underestimate of the probability of seeing high seismic loss. Furthermore, a general method to assess the E2ESFC coefficients between equipment was also proposed, laying the foundation to facilitate applications of the introduced E2ESFC simulation method and to generate a more reliable system risk assessment result.