Are population policies in Arab countries largely ineffective? Past and present perspectives 阿拉伯国家的人口政策是否大多无效？ 过去和现在的观点 ¿Son las políticas de población de los países árabes en gran medida ineficaces? Perspectivas pasadas y presentes

Abstract

This essay explores two types of population policies common in Arab countries: pro-natalist policies, aimed at encouraging higher birth rates, and anti-natalist policies, aimed at reducing birth rates. Determining their practical impact is often challenging due to the lack of control or comparison groups. However, historical policy patterns in two groups of Arab countries over the past six decades offer a unique opportunity for comparison. Between the 1970s and 1990s these two groups implemented opposing programs (pro- vs. anti-natalist), followed by predominantly anti-natalist policies in both groups. By comparing fertility rates between these groups and discussing various factors influencing fertility changes, this study suggests that the influence of population policies in Arab countries may have been smaller than anticipated, to the point that it is questionable whether they have been worthwhile.