Dynamic risk assessment for process operational safety based on reachability analysis

Abstract

The successful implementation of chemical production systems necessitates an effective mechanism for quantitatively assessing dynamic risk. Current methods predominantly evaluate the entire industrial process – from basic operations to the safety protection layer – and typically focus on the impact of fixed deviations in process parameters on the development of abnormal conditions. However, the cumulative impact of process disturbances on dynamic risk deserves attention, particularly in the context of abnormal operating conditions. To overcome the limitations of existing methodologies, this paper introduces a suite of novel dynamic operational risk indices based on reachability analysis, encapsulated within a comprehensive framework that includes identifying safety critical variables and quantifying uncertainties in set-form. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated through applications to a tank system and a Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR) system. This approach has the potential to enhance industry understanding of failure mechanisms and to foster the development of preventative and mitigative strategies.