Assessment on resilience of urban agglomeration transportation system considering passenger choice and load-capacity factor

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110527

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Intercity transportation system (ICTS), characterized by large-scale, high spatial-temporal concentration, and sparser departure frequencies, is more vulnerable in unexpected events. Understanding the resilience characteristics of ICTS is crucial for maintaining the network service capabilities. Aiming to conduct effective resilience assessment on ICTS, we develop the resilience simulation model by introduce dual-regulated parameters for network load and capacity into cascading propagation model under interruption events, and quantify the impact of travel distance, time costs, and route redundancy on travel choice of passengers. Meanwhile, propose service resilience indicators from both the passenger's and the system's perspectives. Finally, we conduct a case study on the resilience of ICTS in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomerations (BTH-UA). The results show that: 1) Multimodal transportation systems usually exhibit better resilience than unimodal systems. 2) For various resilience optimization metrics, it is essential to choose targeted recovery strategies to maximize network resilience. 3) Traveler sensitivity to travel time significantly influences the resilience of passenger-based network services. 4) Changes in transportation supply capacity and travel demand will impact the system's resilience. The research findings can provide valuable references for the resilience development and management of urban transportation systems.

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考虑乘客选择和运载能力因素的城市群交通系统复原力评估

城际交通系统（ICTS）具有规模大、时空集中度高、发车频率稀疏等特点，在突发事件中更加脆弱。了解城际交通系统的弹性特征对于保持网络服务能力至关重要。为了对 ICTS 进行有效的弹性评估，我们建立了弹性仿真模型，将网络负荷和容量的双规参数引入中断事件下的级联传播模型，量化了出行距离、时间成本和线路冗余度对乘客出行选择的影响。同时，从乘客和系统两个角度提出服务弹性指标。最后，我们对京津冀城市群（BTH-UA）ICTS 的弹性进行了案例研究。研究结果表明1) 多式联运系统通常比单式联运系统表现出更好的弹性。2) 对于各种弹性优化指标，必须选择有针对性的恢复策略，以最大限度地提高网络弹性。3) 旅客对旅行时间的敏感性极大地影响了客运网络服务的弹性。4) 运输供给能力和旅行需求的变化将影响系统的恢复能力。研究结果可为城市交通系统的弹性开发和管理提供有价值的参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.