Resilience assessment of FPSO leakage emergency response based on quantitative FRAM

IF 9.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL
Jianxing Yu , Qingze Zeng , Yang Yu , Baolei Zhang , Wentao Ma , Shibo Wu , Hongyu Ding , Zhenmian Li
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

FPSO production process is prone to leakage, and failure to respond promptly and effectively will lead to accident escalation and serious consequences. However, traditional safety assessment methods cannot handle the nonlinear relationships between human, technology, and organization in emergency response process. This study proposes a quantitative FRAM to evaluate the emergency response resilience of FPSO leakage. This method establishes a resilience evaluation framework including three tiers: function, ability, and system, which can quantify system resilience based on the variability of function. First, identify basic functions according to the four stages of monitoring, response, learning and anticipation in the emergency response process, and establish the FRAM model of FPSO leakage emergency response. Then, the quantitative FRAM and Monte Carlo simulation are combined to calculate the variabilities of functions under different operating conditions. Finally, based on the simulation results, the variabilities of basic functions are aggregated and statistically analyzed to quantify system resilience. The implementation process of this method is illustrated by a case study. The influence of different factors on the system resilience is analyzed by setting various operation scenarios, and critical functions are identified by sensitivity analysis, which can provide reference for improving system resilience and ensuring FPSO safety production.
基于定量 FRAM 的 FPSO 泄漏应急响应复原力评估
FPSO 生产过程中容易发生泄漏,如果不能及时有效应对,将导致事故升级,造成严重后果。然而,传统的安全评估方法无法处理应急响应过程中人、技术和组织之间的非线性关系。本研究提出了一种定量的 FPSO 泄漏应急响应弹性评估方法。该方法建立了包括功能、能力和系统三个层级的复原力评价框架,可根据功能的可变性对系统复原力进行量化。首先,根据应急响应过程中的监测、响应、学习和预测四个阶段确定基本功能,建立 FPSO 泄漏应急响应 FRAM 模型。然后,将定量 FRAM 与蒙特卡罗模拟相结合,计算不同运行条件下的功能变异性。最后,根据模拟结果,对基本功能的变异性进行汇总和统计分析,以量化系统的恢复能力。本方法的实施过程通过一个案例研究加以说明。通过设置不同的运行场景,分析不同因素对系统恢复能力的影响,并通过敏感性分析确定关键功能,为提高系统恢复能力、确保 FPSO 安全生产提供参考。
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来源期刊
Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程:工业
CiteScore
15.20
自引率
39.50%
发文量
621
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.
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