Research on Scenario Extrapolation and Emergency Decision-Making for Fire and Explosion Accidents at University Laboratories Based on BN-CBR

IF 9.4 1区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Reliability Engineering & System Safety Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2024.110579

Jie Liu , Fei Cai , Wanqing Wang , Haoyuan Zhu , Liangyun Teng , Xuehua Luo , Yi Chen , Chenwei Hao

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

To solve the problems of suddenness, uncertainty and untimely emergency decision-making related to fire and explosion accidents in university laboratories, a combined method of BN and CBR is introduced to analyze laboratory accidents. By summarizing the characteristics of 72 accident cases worldwide, four scenario elements with key roles are extracted by combining the public safety triangle theoretical model; a BN is established from the macro perspective, which is based on the construction of dynamic scenarios; the evolution path is analyzed via BN theory; and the probability of occurrence of accidents is quantified from the microscopic perspective, with a focus on the analysis of the accidental evolution process. A case similarity calculation is carried out via CBR, and the construction of a BN-CBR-assisted decision-making model is completed, verified and corrected in an case study. The results show that the BN-CBR model can quickly determine the accident evolution path and the most similar historical cases, and its quantitative probability calculation enables one to comprehensively grasp the real-time state of the whole accident and the emergency response in a timely manner, which provides a new way to approach emergency decision-making of accidents.

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基于 BN-CBR 的大学实验室火灾和爆炸事故情景推断与应急决策研究

为解决高校实验室火灾爆炸事故的突发性、不确定性和应急决策不及时等问题，引入BN和CBR相结合的方法对实验室事故进行分析。通过总结全球 72 起事故案例的特点，结合公共安全三角理论模型，提取了四个具有关键作用的情景要素；从宏观角度建立了基于动态情景构建的 BN；通过 BN 理论分析了演化路径；从微观角度量化了事故发生概率，重点分析了事故演化过程。通过 CBR 进行案例相似性计算，在案例研究中完成 BN-CBR 辅助决策模型的构建、验证和修正。结果表明，BN-CBR模型能够快速确定事故演化路径和最相似的历史案例，其定量概率计算能够及时全面地掌握整个事故的实时状态和应急响应，为事故应急决策提供了新的思路。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Reliability Engineering & System Safety 管理科学-工程：工业

CiteScore

15.20

自引率

39.50%

发文量

621

审稿时长

67 days

期刊介绍： Elsevier publishes Reliability Engineering & System Safety in association with the European Safety and Reliability Association and the Safety Engineering and Risk Analysis Division. The international journal is devoted to developing and applying methods to enhance the safety and reliability of complex technological systems, like nuclear power plants, chemical plants, hazardous waste facilities, space systems, offshore and maritime systems, transportation systems, constructed infrastructure, and manufacturing plants. The journal normally publishes only articles that involve the analysis of substantive problems related to the reliability of complex systems or present techniques and/or theoretical results that have a discernable relationship to the solution of such problems. An important aim is to balance academic material and practical applications.