Predicting the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular event in systemic lupus erythematosus: a Chinese SLE treatment and research group study XXVI.

IF 5.1 2区 医学 Q1 RHEUMATOLOGY
Can Huang, Yutong Li, Ziqian Wang, Shudian Lin, Jiu-Liang Zhao, Qian Wang, Xinping Tian, Yanhong Wang, Xinwang Duan, Yongfu Wang, Cheng Zhao, Zhenbiao Wu, Jian Xu, Chen Han, Min Yang, Rui Wu, Xiaofeng Zeng, Mengtao Li
{"title":"Predicting the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular event in systemic lupus erythematosus: a Chinese SLE treatment and research group study XXVI.","authors":"Can Huang, Yutong Li, Ziqian Wang, Shudian Lin, Jiu-Liang Zhao, Qian Wang, Xinping Tian, Yanhong Wang, Xinwang Duan, Yongfu Wang, Cheng Zhao, Zhenbiao Wu, Jian Xu, Chen Han, Min Yang, Rui Wu, Xiaofeng Zeng, Mengtao Li","doi":"10.1136/rmdopen-2024-004425","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have an increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCEs). Furthermore, CCE was a significant factor contributing to mortality in patients with SLE. However, no clinical model exists that can predict which patients are at high risk. The purpose of this study was to develop a practical model for predicting the risk of CCE in people with SLE.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study was based on the Chinese SLE Treatment and Research Group cohort. A total of 2399 patients, who had a follow-up period of over 3 years and were diagnosed with SLE for less than 1 year at the start of the study, were included. Cox proportional hazards regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used to establish the model. Internal validation was performed, and the predictive power of the model was evaluated.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>During the follow-up period, 93 patients had CCEs. The prediction model included nine variables: male gender, smoking, hypertension, age of SLE onset >40, cutaneous involvement, arthritis, anti-β2GP1 antibody positivity, high-dose glucocorticoids and hydroxychloroquine usage. The model's C index was 0.801. Patients with a prognostic index over 0.544 were classified into the high-risk group.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>We have developed a predictive model that uses clinical indicators to assess the probability of CCE in patients diagnosed with SLE. This model has the ability to precisely predict the risk of CCE in patients with SLE. We recommended using this model in the routine assessment of patients with SLE.</p>","PeriodicalId":21396,"journal":{"name":"RMD Open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11418496/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"RMD Open","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1136/rmdopen-2024-004425","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"RHEUMATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have an increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCEs). Furthermore, CCE was a significant factor contributing to mortality in patients with SLE. However, no clinical model exists that can predict which patients are at high risk. The purpose of this study was to develop a practical model for predicting the risk of CCE in people with SLE.

Methods: This study was based on the Chinese SLE Treatment and Research Group cohort. A total of 2399 patients, who had a follow-up period of over 3 years and were diagnosed with SLE for less than 1 year at the start of the study, were included. Cox proportional hazards regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used to establish the model. Internal validation was performed, and the predictive power of the model was evaluated.

Results: During the follow-up period, 93 patients had CCEs. The prediction model included nine variables: male gender, smoking, hypertension, age of SLE onset >40, cutaneous involvement, arthritis, anti-β2GP1 antibody positivity, high-dose glucocorticoids and hydroxychloroquine usage. The model's C index was 0.801. Patients with a prognostic index over 0.544 were classified into the high-risk group.

Conclusion: We have developed a predictive model that uses clinical indicators to assess the probability of CCE in patients diagnosed with SLE. This model has the ability to precisely predict the risk of CCE in patients with SLE. We recommended using this model in the routine assessment of patients with SLE.

预测系统性红斑狼疮患者发生心脑血管事件的风险:中国系统性红斑狼疮治疗与研究小组第二十六次研究。
目的:系统性红斑狼疮(SLE)患者发生心脑血管事件(CCE)的风险增加。此外,CCE也是导致系统性红斑狼疮患者死亡的一个重要因素。然而,目前还没有临床模型可以预测哪些患者属于高危人群。本研究的目的是建立一个实用的模型,用于预测系统性红斑狼疮患者发生 CCE 的风险:本研究以中国系统性红斑狼疮治疗与研究组队列为基础。方法:本研究以中国系统性红斑狼疮治疗研究组队列为基础,共纳入了 2399 名随访时间超过 3 年且在研究开始时确诊系统性红斑狼疮不足 1 年的患者。该模型采用了 Cox 比例危险度回归、最小绝对缩减和选择算子回归。进行了内部验证,并评估了模型的预测能力:结果:在随访期间,93 名患者发生了 CCE。预测模型包括九个变量:男性、吸烟、高血压、系统性红斑狼疮发病年龄大于40岁、皮肤受累、关节炎、抗β2GP1抗体阳性、大剂量糖皮质激素和羟氯喹的使用。模型的 C 指数为 0.801。预后指数超过 0.544 的患者被归为高危组:我们建立了一个预测模型,利用临床指标来评估确诊为系统性红斑狼疮的患者发生 CCE 的概率。该模型能够准确预测系统性红斑狼疮患者发生 CCE 的风险。我们建议在对系统性红斑狼疮患者进行常规评估时使用该模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
RMD Open
RMD Open RHEUMATOLOGY-
CiteScore
7.30
自引率
6.50%
发文量
205
审稿时长
14 weeks
期刊介绍: RMD Open publishes high quality peer-reviewed original research covering the full spectrum of musculoskeletal disorders, rheumatism and connective tissue diseases, including osteoporosis, spine and rehabilitation. Clinical and epidemiological research, basic and translational medicine, interesting clinical cases, and smaller studies that add to the literature are all considered.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信