A nomogram for predicting nutritional risk before gastric cancer surgery.

Abstract

Background and objectives: Gastric cancer (GC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Patients with GC have higher nutritional risk. This study aimed to construct a nomogram model for predicting preoperative nutritional risk in patients with GC in order to assess preoperative nutritional risk in patients more precisely.

Methods and study design: Patients diagnosed with GC and undergoing surgical treatment were included in this study. Data was collected through clinical information, laboratory testing, and radiomics-derived characteristics. Least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multi-variable logistic regression were employed to construct a clinical prediction model, which takes the form of a logistic nomogram. The effectiveness of the nomogram model was evaluated using receiver operat-ing characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: A total of three predictors, namely body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin (Hb) and radiomics characteristic score (Radscore) were identified by LASSO regression analysis from a total of 21 variables studied. The model constructed using these three predictors displayed medium prediction ability. The area under the ROC curve was 0.895 (95% CI 0.844-0.945) in the training set, with a cutoff value of 0.651, precision of 0.957, and sensitivity of 0.718. In the validation set, it was 0.880 (95% CI 0.806-0.954), with a cutoff value of 0.655, precision of 0.930, and sensitivity of 0.698. DCA also confirmed the clinical benefit of the combined model.

Conclusions: This simple and dependable nomogram model for clinical prediction can assist physicians in assessing preoperative nutritional risk in GC patients in a time-efficient and accurate manner to facilitate early identification and diagnosis.