An assessment of the vulnerability and adaptation potential of sugarcane production to water stress, southern Africa

IF 4.8 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
S. Ngcobo , G. Jewitt , T.R. Hill , E. Archer
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Abstract

The high spatial variability of precipitation, heightened frequency of droughts and concomitant increases in exposure to water stress across southern Africa due to climate change, presents significant challenges for sugarcane production and the regional sugarcane production value chain. While production has intensified in the past few decades, yields have declined due to increased climatic variability and agronomic management approaches. Increased precipitation variability has enhanced sugarcane vulnerability to water stress and is likely to negatively affect yields. Combining crop simulations and relationships between sugarcane water use and observed rainfall, we introduce a crop productivity ratio (CPR) which assesses sugarcane water stress for six sugarcane mills across southern Africa. The CPR and simulation results were used to assess the adaptation potential or ‘space’ for mill areas that have varying rates of exposure and abilities to adapt to water stress. Simulation results were used to determine the long-term adaption potential of mill areas and to surmise the causes of yield declines. The results were used to offer recommendations to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance adaptation to water stress. We conclude that the amplification of inter-annual precipitation variability will enhance the exposure of sugarcane to water stress and require adaptation interventions. Adapting to external shocks is a multifaceted exercise that requires a holistic approach that includes every aspect of the sugarcane value chain.

Abstract Image

评估南部非洲甘蔗生产对水资源压力的脆弱性和适应潜力
由于气候变化,整个南部非洲降水量的空间变异性很大,干旱发生的频率增加,随之而来的是水压力的增加,这给甘蔗生产和区域甘蔗生产价值链带来了重大挑战。在过去几十年里,虽然甘蔗生产得到了加强,但由于气候变异性和农艺管理方法的增加,产量却有所下降。降水变异性的增加使甘蔗更容易受到水分胁迫的影响,并可能对产量产生负面影响。结合作物模拟和甘蔗用水量与观测降雨量之间的关系,我们引入了作物生产力比(CPR),用于评估南部非洲六个甘蔗种植园的甘蔗用水压力。作物生产力比和模拟结果被用于评估甘蔗种植区的适应潜力或 "空间",这些种植区对水分胁迫的暴露率和适应能力各不相同。模拟结果用于确定碾磨区的长期适应潜力,并推测产量下降的原因。根据模拟结果提出建议,以降低脆弱性并增强对水胁迫的适应能力。我们的结论是,年际降水变化的扩大将使甘蔗更容易受到水压力的影响,因此需要采取适应性干预措施。适应外部冲击是一项多方面的工作,需要采取包括甘蔗价值链各个方面的整体方法。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
2.60%
发文量
193
审稿时长
69 days
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