Spatial analysis of socio-economic and demographic factors influencing urban flood vulnerability

IF 3.9 2区 社会学 Q1 URBAN STUDIES
Md Tazmul Islam, Qingmin Meng
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and climate change require a thorough understanding of flood vulnerability in order to assure urban safety and resilience. Understanding the factors that contribute to flood vulnerability, allows us to develop effective initiatives that could mitigate the destructive consequences of flooding, while also protecting communities. The objective of this research is to identify and model the socio-economic and demographic factors that significantly influence flood vulnerability in the floodplains of Jackson, Mississippi, and Birmingham, Alabama, USA. First we analyzed the correlation between socio-economic and demographic factors then employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to address multicollinearity, a common challenge in multivariate statistical modeling. Subsequently, PCs-based global regression (PCR) and geographically weighted regression (PCGWR) analysis are used to identify key drivers of flood vulnerability. The findings demonstrate that a significant proportion of the variance (>80%) of these factors can be captured by first two to three Principal Components (PCs). Consistent with existing research, African American, poverty, seniors, and the number of less educated people positively correlate with flood vulnerability, while income and housing prices exhibit a negative correlation. Additionally, PCGWR outperformed the Principal Component Regression (PCR) in most cases, highlighting the spatial heterogeneity of flood vulnerability. This study focuses on two U.S. cities, and the methodology is applicable to other cities with similar characteristics. The identified factors align with global research on flood vulnerability, making the proposed research and findings valuable worldwide. The findings of this research are useful for local governments, policymakers, and urban developers to make detailed location specific flood vulnerability plan to reduce impact of flood and improve urban resilience.

影响城市洪灾脆弱性的社会经济和人口因素的空间分析
快速的城市化和气候变化要求我们全面了解洪水的脆弱性,以确保城市安全和抗灾能力。了解造成洪水脆弱性的因素,可以让我们制定有效的措施,减轻洪水的破坏性后果,同时保护社区。本研究的目的是确定并模拟对美国密西西比州杰克逊市和阿拉巴马州伯明翰市洪泛区的洪水脆弱性有重大影响的社会经济和人口因素。首先,我们分析了社会经济和人口因素之间的相关性,然后采用主成分分析法(PCA)来解决多元统计建模中常见的多重共线性问题。随后,利用基于主成分的全球回归(PCR)和地理加权回归(PCGWR)分析来确定洪水脆弱性的关键驱动因素。研究结果表明,前两到三个主成分 (PC) 可以捕捉到这些因素的很大一部分变异(80%)。与现有研究一致,非裔美国人、贫困、老年人和受教育程度较低的人数与洪灾脆弱性呈正相关,而收入和房价则呈负相关。此外,PCGWR 在大多数情况下都优于主成分回归 (PCR),凸显了洪灾脆弱性的空间异质性。本研究以美国的两个城市为重点,研究方法适用于具有类似特征的其他城市。所确定的因素与全球洪水脆弱性研究相一致,因此所建议的研究和发现在全球范围内都很有价值。这项研究的结果对地方政府、决策者和城市开发商制定详细的、针对具体地点的洪水脆弱性计划,以减少洪水影响和提高城市抗灾能力很有帮助。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.50
自引率
4.90%
发文量
45
审稿时长
65 days
期刊介绍: Journal of Urban Management (JUM) is the Official Journal of Zhejiang University and the Chinese Association of Urban Management, an international, peer-reviewed open access journal covering planning, administering, regulating, and governing urban complexity. JUM has its two-fold aims set to integrate the studies across fields in urban planning and management, as well as to provide a more holistic perspective on problem solving. 1) Explore innovative management skills for taming thorny problems that arise with global urbanization 2) Provide a platform to deal with urban affairs whose solutions must be looked at from an interdisciplinary perspective.
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