Enhancing reliability assessment in distributed generation networks: Incorporating dynamic correlation of wind-solar power output uncertainty

Abstract

Amidst escalating environmental concerns and energy scarcity, the integration of distributed generation (DG) within distribution networks (DN) has emerged as a pivotal developmental trend. The uncertainty inherent in renewable energy output often disrupts DG networks. Notably, the dynamic correlation between key renewable sources, such as wind and solar energy, significantly influences the reliability analysis of these networks.To comprehensively assess the impact of wind-solar power output uncertainty and its dynamic correlation on DN reliability, this study leverages copula theory to express the dynamic correlation coefficient between wind and solar power. This coefficient is formulated as the dynamic correlation of wind-solar power through copula dynamic correlation coefficient. Employing an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model with constraints solved using maximum likelihood kernel (MLK), we construct the wind-solar joint output (WSJO) model. Subsequently, utilizing sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) with the WSJO model, we analyze DN reliability. In case of DN failure, the WSJO model generates random samples of the wind-solar joint output sequence. Subsequent power restoration to governed islands enables the calculation of DN reliability indices. The WSJO model constructed in this study accounts for wind resource output uncertainty and dynamic correlation, aligning more closely with actual distributed generation output and enhancing the accuracy of reliability assessment. Finally, we simulate the improved IEEE-RBTS-BUS6-F4 system to underscore the crucial role of considering wind-solar energy's dynamic correlation in DN reliability assessment.