Mapping the charging demand for electric vehicles in 2050 from mobility habits

Abstract

This paper proposes a method to spatially model and compare charging needs on the European scale, considering local disparities in population density, distance to city centres, car ownership and mobility habits. Mobility habits are modelled across Europe in terms of distance and time frame to elaborate scenarios of charging behaviour. The first step of the method is to calculate the density of electric vehicles with a resolution of 1 km${}^2$, according to the progressive electrification of the fleet each year between 2020 and 2050. The second step is to quantify the mobility of commuters using their driving distance to work areas and mobility statistics. The model is then applied in a case study in Switzerland to plan the public charging infrastructure required to satisfy the charging needs of the local population. Despite lower motorization rates and driving distances, the results show a stronger need for charging in cities. With 50% of commuters charging at work and 20% at home during the workday, the demand in the evening can be reduced by 50% in the suburban areas compared to the baseline scenario in which all commuters are charging at home in the evening. This model can be used to quantify the energy needs of commuters, plan the deployment of the charging infrastructure, or simulate the effect of policies.