Development of an integrated urban modelling framework for examining the impacts of work from home on travel behavior

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper develops an integrated urban modelling framework (IUMF) to predict how work from home (WFH) decision affects travel behavior. First, it conducts a questionnaire survey among working professionals in Halifax, Canada, to collect data on their socio-demographic characteristics, mode choice, vehicle ownership, and work-arrangement. Bayesian Belief network models are developed using the collected responses to calculate the cumulative probability tables (CPTs) of variables associated with the decision to WFH. Next, the ascertained CPTs are used as input to extend an integrated urban modelling framework (IUMF) that is further utilized to simulate individuals’ work from home choices and travel behavior up to 2025 for Halifax, Canada. Results indicate that around 57% of the workers would like to WFH and 7% wants to relocate closer to workplace. The model forecasts a significant preference for remote work among individuals with offices in the urban core. Results also show that auto mode share is increased to 79% in 2024, whereas transit, walking and biking trips decreased. Average travel distance is higher in the post-pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic, while travel distance of telecommuters is found to be higher than non-telecommuters. Statistically significant differences are observed between telecommuters and non-telecommuters for ‘number of activities’ and ‘distance travelled’ in a day. The outcomes of this study will offer policy makers a better understanding of long-term impacts of WFH on transport and land-use systems and help to develop effective travel demand management strategies.

开发城市综合建模框架,研究在家办公对出行行为的影响
本文建立了一个综合城市建模框架(IUMF),以预测在家办公(WFH)决策如何影响出行行为。首先,本文对加拿大哈利法克斯的在职专业人士进行了问卷调查,收集了他们的社会人口特征、模式选择、车辆拥有量和工作安排等数据。利用收集到的答复建立贝叶斯信念网络模型,计算出与全职家庭生活决策相关的变量累积概率表(CPT)。然后,将确定的 CPTs 作为输入,扩展综合城市建模框架 (IUMF),并进一步利用该框架模拟加拿大哈利法克斯到 2025 年的个人在家办公选择和出行行为。结果表明,约 57% 的工人希望全职在家工作,7% 的工人希望搬迁到离工作地点更近的地方。该模型预测,在城市核心地区拥有办公室的个人更倾向于远程工作。结果还显示,到 2024 年,汽车出行比例将上升至 79%,而公交、步行和自行车出行比例则有所下降。大流行后的平均出行距离高于大流行前,而远程办公者的出行距离高于非远程办公者。在一天的 "活动次数 "和 "旅行距离 "方面,电子通勤者和非电子通勤者之间存在明显的统计学差异。这项研究的结果将使政策制定者更好地了解全职家庭对交通和土地使用系统的长期影响,并有助于制定有效的出行需求管理策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
12.00%
发文量
222
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