Factors driving merchant photomask growth and shortages

Leslie B. Dahl, Bud T. Caverly
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Abstract

Merchant photomask companies service the majority of the 14nm and greater nodes globally. These industry important nodes are facing mask supply challenges in the coming decade due to new organic growth and tool obsolescence. The first factor driving photomask volume is the significant wafer capacity being added globally at mid and mature technologies (>=28nm). The semiconductor growth is being driven by macro market trends including a renewed global appreciation of the strategic nature of the semiconductor business. The growth also is the result of new technology innovations like automotive electrification & ADAS, Artificial Intelligence, telecom (5G/6G), IoT, green power, and medical applications. The overall semiconductor business is forecasted to grow upwards of 8% CAGR from 2022 – 2030 1 with a significant portion occurring in Mid and Mature Technologies. This growth will require significant non-leading edge mask capacity. This paper will quantify the growth and the availability of tooling. Historically, photomask equipment makers produced new tools for the “leading edge” and the trailing nodes were serviced by previous generations of advanced photomasks tools. Fortunately, the photomask equipment manufacturers responded to the trailing edge needs and have introduced tools and upgrades to begin addressing this market. The second issue facing the photomask industry is significant equipment obsolescence for the mask tools that support mature technologies. This paper quantifies the obsolescence challenge. The dual factors of new organic growth and tool retirements has created a shortage of mask supply at the mid and mature nodes. There are challenges to add mask capacity to these mature nodes in an economically viable fashion. We believe that cooperation between mask maker, tool suppliers and mask customers is crucial to ensure that the predicted semiconductor growth does not face the risk of being constrained by photomasks.
推动商用光掩膜增长和短缺的因素
商业光掩膜公司为全球大多数 14 纳米及以上节点提供服务。由于新的有机增长和工具淘汰,这些行业重要节点在未来十年将面临掩膜供应挑战。推动光掩膜产量增长的第一个因素是全球在中型和成熟技术(>=28 纳米)方面增加的大量晶圆产能。推动半导体增长的是宏观市场趋势,包括全球对半导体业务战略性质的重新认识。此外,汽车电气化和 ADAS、人工智能、电信(5G/6G)、物联网、绿色能源和医疗应用等新技术创新也推动了半导体业务的增长。据预测,从 2022 年到 2030 年,整个半导体业务的年均复合增长率将达到 8% 以上1 ,其中很大一部分将出现在中型和成熟技术领域。这种增长将需要大量的非前沿掩膜能力。本文将量化这一增长和工具的可用性。从历史上看,光掩膜设备制造商为 "前沿 "生产新的工具,而尾部节点则由前几代先进的光掩膜工具提供服务。幸运的是,光掩膜设备制造商对后缘需求做出了回应,并推出了工具和升级产品,开始应对这一市场。光掩膜行业面临的第二个问题是支持成熟技术的掩膜工具设备严重过时。本文量化了淘汰挑战。新的有机增长和工具退役的双重因素造成了中节点和成熟节点的掩膜供应短缺。如何以经济可行的方式增加这些成熟节点的掩膜产能面临挑战。我们认为,光罩制造商、工具供应商和光罩客户之间的合作对于确保预期的半导体增长不会面临受光罩限制的风险至关重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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