From data through discount rates to the area under the curve

IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q4 BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
Peter R. Killeen
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The rate of discounting future goods is a crucial factor in intertemporal trade-offs, upon which depends not only individual well-being but also that of our planet: How much privation now for a temperate future for our grandchildren? What is the best way to measure how the value of future goods decreases with its delay? The most accurate discount functions involve several covarying parameters, making interpretation equivocal. A universal and robust measure is the area under the discount curve, the AuC. The AuC of a hyperbolic discount function is a logarithmic function of the discount rate, k. The same integral also approximates the area under a hyperboloid function. A simple technique converts each datum into estimates of the discount rate, eliminating rogue data points in the process. These trimmed estimates are converted into areas and tested against data, where they succeed at predicting the AuC and its relation to log(k).

从数据到贴现率再到曲线下的面积。
未来商品的折现率是跨期权衡的一个关键因素,它不仅取决于个人的福祉,也取决于我们星球的福祉:现在多少贫困才能让我们的子孙拥有一个温和的未来?衡量未来商品的价值如何随其延迟而减少的最佳方法是什么?最精确的折扣函数包含几个协变参数,使得解释模棱两可。一个通用且可靠的度量是贴现曲线下的面积,即AuC。双曲折现函数的AuC是折现率k的对数函数。同样的积分也近似于双曲函数下的面积。一种简单的技术将每个数据转换为对贴现率的估计,从而消除了过程中的不良数据点。这些修剪后的估计值被转换成区域,并根据数据进行测试,从而成功预测AuC及其与log(k)的关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
14.80%
发文量
83
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior is primarily for the original publication of experiments relevant to the behavior of individual organisms.
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