MEMS commercialization: ingredients for success

Abstract

The commercialization of most new technologies has traditionally taken many more years than pundits predict. MEMS are no exception to this rule. Five-year predictions of explosive growth often turn into 20-year marathons of endurance. The adoption of new technology often requires overwhelming evidence of superiority before displacing an established technology. As a rule of thumb, if one can't see a tenfold advantage in some parameter of importance, such as performance or cost, the likelihood of successful adoption is low. Several MEMS devices have emerged that have significant commercial importance. Several others appear to be on the threshold of commercial success. The characteristics of some of these MEMS devices will be examined, the ingredients for success distilled from this group, and some predictions for the future will be offered.