Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters

IF 45.8 1区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Science Pub Date : 2023-01-05 DOI:10.1126/science.abo1324

David R. Rounce, Regine Hock, Fabien Maussion, Romain Hugonnet, William Kochtitzky, Matthias Huss, Etienne Berthier, Douglas Brinkerhoff, Loris Compagno, Luke Copland, Daniel Farinotti, Brian Menounos, Robert W. McNabb

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引用次数: 42

Abstract

Glacier mass loss affects sea level rise, water resources, and natural hazards. We present global glacier projections, excluding the ice sheets, for shared socioeconomic pathways calibrated with data for each glacier. Glaciers are projected to lose 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) to 41 ± 11% (+4°C) of their mass by 2100, relative to 2015, for global temperature change scenarios. This corresponds to 90 ± 26 to 154 ± 44 millimeters sea level equivalent and will cause 49 ± 9 to 83 ± 7% of glaciers to disappear. Mass loss is linearly related to temperature increase and thus reductions in temperature increase reduce mass loss. Based on climate pledges from the Conference of the Parties (COP26), global mean temperature is projected to increase by +2.7°C, which would lead to a sea level contribution of 115 ± 40 millimeters and cause widespread deglaciation in most mid-latitude regions by 2100.

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21 世纪全球冰川的变化：温度的每一次上升都很重要

冰川质量损失会影响海平面上升、水资源和自然灾害。我们针对共同的社会经济路径，对全球冰川（不包括冰原）进行了预测，并对每个冰川的数据进行了校准。根据全球温度变化情景预测，到 2100 年，冰川的质量将比 2015 年减少 26 ± 6% (+1.5°C) 到 41 ± 11% (+4°C)。这相当于 90 ± 26 到 154 ± 44 毫米的海平面当量，并将导致 49 ± 9 到 83 ± 7% 的冰川消失。质量损失与气温上升呈线性关系，因此气温上升的降低会减少质量损失。根据缔约方大会（COP26）的气候承诺，到 2100 年，全球平均气温预计将上升 +2.7°C，这将导致海平面上升 115 ± 40 毫米，并造成大多数中纬度地区的大面积冰川退化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Science 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

61.10

自引率

0.90%

发文量

审稿时长

2.1 months

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