Glucose Metabolism Indices and the Development of Chronic Kidney Disease: A Cohort Study of Middle-Aged and Elderly Chinese Persons.

Objective: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has become a major global health issue, and abnormalities of glucose metabolism are a risk factor responsible for development of CKD. We aimed to investigate associations between glucose metabolism indices and CKD in a Chinese population and determine which index is superior for predicting incident CKD.

Methods: We performed a community-based population on 5232 subjects aged ≥40 years without baseline CKD. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² or urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥30 mg/g. We examined the associations of glucose metabolism indices, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-hour (2 h) oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fasting insulin level, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and HOMA-β and the development of CKD.

Results: With an average follow-up of 3.6 years, 6.4% of the subjects developed CKD. Pearson's correlation analysis revealed that FPG, HbA1c, fasting insulin, and HOMA-IR were all significantly correlated with UACR and eGFR. The association persisted in multivariate linear regression analysis adjusted for age and sex. Compared with other glucose indices, HOMA-IR exhibited the strongest associations with CKD in COX multivariate regression analysis (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04-1.31).

Conclusion: HOMA-IR is superior to other routine indices of glucose metabolism for predicting the development of CKD in middle-aged Chinese persons. Screening with HOMA-IR may help prevent the development of CKD in the general population.