The Impact of Low Fertility Rates on Labor Demand and Socioeconomic Development in China.

The World Population Prospects report, published by the United Nations in 2022, revealed a decline in the global population growth rate (PGR) to less than 1% — the lowest recorded rate since 1950. Predictions suggest a further decrease to 0.5% by 2050, culminating in negative growth in more than 60 countries and intensifying the issue of population aging (1). China, a highly populous nation, is encountering even more acute challenges. By the conclusion of 2022, China’s population totaled approximately 1.412 billion, reflecting a decline of 850,000 from the prior year and a natural PGR of −0.06% (2). This negative growth, China’s first since the 1960s, indicates that the peak of China’s population was reached in 2021, with a slide into negative growth from 2022 onward. Examining the population structure between 2010 and 2022, there was a decrease in China’s working-age population (ages 15–64) from 74.5% to 68.2% and an increase in the over-65 demographic from 8.87% to 14.9%, whereas the under-15 age group experienced only negligible change. This scenario underscores the escalating trend of aging in China, propelled by persistently low fertility rates. China’s negative population growth poses challenges and opportunities for its socio-economic development. Firstly, changes in population size and structure will bring about major alterations in family dynamics and societal systems, significantly impacting social demands and resource allocation strategies. Additionally, the decline in the working-age population, being central to economic development, will notably curtail economic growth potential. Conversely, a reduced population size will increase per capita resource allocation in sectors like education and healthcare, presenting an opportunity to enhance the quality of life. These demographic changes can also spur a new wave of industrial revolution, creating novel development prospects.