Yu Sun, Chenxi Ouyang, Yu Zhang, Yong Li, Yang Liu, Ming Jiang, Luming Nong, Gongming Gao
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引用次数: 0
摘要
背景：软骨肉瘤的发病率逐年上升，高级别软骨肉瘤患者的治疗和预后变得越来越重要。提名图是一种能快速、简便地预测肿瘤患者总生存期的工具。因此，我们希望开发并验证一种预测高级别软骨肉瘤患者总生存期的提名图：我们从监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中回顾性收集了2004年至2015年的396例高级别软骨肉瘤患者。随机分为模型组和验证组，使用X-tile软件得出年龄和肿瘤大小分组的最佳临界值。然后，通过SPSS.26对模型组进行单变量和多变量Cox分析，并使用R软件，利用C-indix和ROC曲线对模型进行评估，最后将这些独立的预后因素纳入Nomogram中：396名患者被随机分配到建模组（280人）或验证组（116人）。年龄、组织类型、肿瘤大小、AJCC分期、区域扩展和手术被确定为独立的预后因素（P < 0.05），这些因素进一步组合构建了一个提名图。总生存期（OS）的内部验证 C 指数为 0.757，而总生存期（OS）的外部验证 C 指数为 0.832。内部和外部校准曲线均显示，提名图预测结果与实际生存率之间存在良好的一致性：本研究确定了年龄、肿瘤大小、AJCC 分期、组织类型、手术和肿瘤扩展是高级别软骨肉瘤的独立预后因素，并构建了预测高级别软骨肉瘤 3 年和 5 年生存率的提名图。
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting prognosis of high-grade chondrosarcoma: A surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-based population analysis.
Background: The incidence of chondrosarcoma is increasing every year, and the treatment and prognosis of patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma are becoming more and more important. Nomogram is a tool that can quickly and easily predict the overall survival of tumor patients. Therefore, the development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma was desired.
Methods: We retrospectively collected 396 patients with high-grade chondrosarcoma from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015. Randomly divided into model and validation groups, the best cut-off values for age and tumor size grouping were derived by using X-tile software. Then, independent prognostic factors for high-grade chondrosarcoma were derived by SPSS.26 univariate and multivariate Cox analyses analysis in the model group, and the model was evaluated by using R software, using C-indix and ROC curves, and finally these independent prognostic factors were included in Nomogram.
Results: 396 patients were randomly assigned to the modelling group (n = 280) or the validation group (n = 116). Age, tissue-type, tumor size, AJCC stage, regional expansion and surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors (p < 0.05) which further combined to construct a nomogram. The C-index of internal validation for overall survival(OS) was 0.757, while the C-index of external validation for overall survival(OS) was 0.832. Both internal and external calibration curves show a good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival.
Conclusion: In this study, we established age, tumour size, AJCC stage, tissue type, surgery and tumor extension as independent prognostic factors for high-grade chondrosarcoma and constructed a nomogram to predict 3- and 5-year survival rates for high-grade chondrosarcoma.
期刊介绍：
Journal of Orthopaedic Surgery is an open access peer-reviewed journal publishing original reviews and research articles on all aspects of orthopaedic surgery. It is the official journal of the Asia Pacific Orthopaedic Association.
The journal welcomes and will publish materials of a diverse nature, from basic science research to clinical trials and surgical techniques. The journal encourages contributions from all parts of the world, but special emphasis is given to research of particular relevance to the Asia Pacific region.
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