{"title":"运动相关的SARS-CoV-2远程空气传播风险:数学模型研究","authors":"Hiroyuki Furuya","doi":"","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>The worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants remains a health threat. As sports event-related outbreaks due to long-range airborne transmission in ventilation have been reported, the present study aimed to quantify infection risk using available data and apply the results to an outbreak in an ice hockey arena.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the risk of airborne infection.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A quantum was defined as the dose of airborne droplet nuclei required to cause infection in 63% of susceptible persons. The estimated quanta emission rate per infector showed a log-normal distribution with a geometric mean (GM) of 28.81, geometric deviation (GD) of 5.78, and median of 22.65 quanta/h. The estimated average time-average quanta concentration (C<sub><i>avg</i></sub>; quanta/m<sup>3</sup>) showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 0.08, GD of 5.80, and median of 0.06. The outdoor ventilation rate per infected person for the scenario showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 710.96, GD of 6.22, and median of 169.17 m<sup>3</sup>/h. A higher C<sub><i>avg</i></sub> value indicated exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to the lower ventilation rate in the a rena a nd the large expiratory volume of athletes caused by intensive exercise.</p>","PeriodicalId":38819,"journal":{"name":"Tokai Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine","volume":"48 2","pages":"62-66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk of Sports-associated Long-range Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modeling Study.\",\"authors\":\"Hiroyuki Furuya\",\"doi\":\"\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>The worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants remains a health threat. As sports event-related outbreaks due to long-range airborne transmission in ventilation have been reported, the present study aimed to quantify infection risk using available data and apply the results to an outbreak in an ice hockey arena.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the risk of airborne infection.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A quantum was defined as the dose of airborne droplet nuclei required to cause infection in 63% of susceptible persons. The estimated quanta emission rate per infector showed a log-normal distribution with a geometric mean (GM) of 28.81, geometric deviation (GD) of 5.78, and median of 22.65 quanta/h. The estimated average time-average quanta concentration (C<sub><i>avg</i></sub>; quanta/m<sup>3</sup>) showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 0.08, GD of 5.80, and median of 0.06. The outdoor ventilation rate per infected person for the scenario showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 710.96, GD of 6.22, and median of 169.17 m<sup>3</sup>/h. A higher C<sub><i>avg</i></sub> value indicated exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to the lower ventilation rate in the a rena a nd the large expiratory volume of athletes caused by intensive exercise.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":38819,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tokai Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine\",\"volume\":\"48 2\",\"pages\":\"62-66\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-07-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tokai Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tokai Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk of Sports-associated Long-range Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modeling Study.
Objective: The worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants remains a health threat. As sports event-related outbreaks due to long-range airborne transmission in ventilation have been reported, the present study aimed to quantify infection risk using available data and apply the results to an outbreak in an ice hockey arena.
Methods: A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the risk of airborne infection.
Results: A quantum was defined as the dose of airborne droplet nuclei required to cause infection in 63% of susceptible persons. The estimated quanta emission rate per infector showed a log-normal distribution with a geometric mean (GM) of 28.81, geometric deviation (GD) of 5.78, and median of 22.65 quanta/h. The estimated average time-average quanta concentration (Cavg; quanta/m3) showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 0.08, GD of 5.80, and median of 0.06. The outdoor ventilation rate per infected person for the scenario showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 710.96, GD of 6.22, and median of 169.17 m3/h. A higher Cavg value indicated exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to the lower ventilation rate in the a rena a nd the large expiratory volume of athletes caused by intensive exercise.
期刊介绍：
The Tokai Journal of Experimental and Clinical Medicine, also referred to as Tokai Journal, is an official quarterly publication of the Tokai Medical Association. Tokai Journal publishes original articles that deal with issues of clinical, experimental, socioeconomic, cultural and/or historical importance to medical science and related fields. Manuscripts may be submitted as full-length Original Articles or Brief Communications. Tokai Journal also publishes reviews and symposium proceedings. Articles accepted for publication in Tokai Journal cannot be reproduced elsewhere without written permission from the Tokai Medical Association. In addition, Tokai Journal will not be held responsible for the opinions of the authors expressed in the published articles.
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