中国南方植树造林二十年后的碳汇潜力

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Earths Future Pub Date : 2022-11-17 DOI:10.1029/2022EF002674
X. M. Zhang, M. Brandt, Y. M. Yue, X. W. Tong, K. L. Wang, R. Fensholt
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引用次数: 16

摘要

造林和土地利用的变化以木质生物质的形式从大气中吸收碳,使中国南方成为全球最大的碳汇之一,有助于减缓气候变化。然而,森林生长饱和和可造林的可用土地限制了这一碳汇的寿命,尽管大量研究已经量化了过去几十年的植被变化,但该地区剩余的碳汇潜力目前尚不清楚。在此,我们训练了一个具有中国南方异质性景观特征的多预测因子模型,并预测了该地区2002-2017年的生物量碳承载能力。我们比较了观测到的和预测的生物量碳密度,发现在2002年至2017年的大约20年的造林期间,已经封存了2.34 Pg碳,总共仍有5.32 Pg碳可能被封存。这意味着该地区在2017年已达到其地上生物量碳承载能力的73%,比2002年增加了12%,相当于每年减少0.77%。我们确定了仍能吸收2.39 PgC的潜在造林区域,而新旧森林已达到其潜力的87%,剩余1.85 PgC。我们的工作定位了植被尚未充分发挥潜力的地区,但也表明植树造林不是减缓气候变化的长期解决方案。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The Carbon Sink Potential of Southern China After Two Decades of Afforestation

The Carbon Sink Potential of Southern China After Two Decades of Afforestation

Afforestation and land use changes that sequester carbon from the atmosphere in the form of woody biomass have turned southern China into one of the largest carbon sinks globally, which contributes to mitigating climate change. However, forest growth saturation and available land that can be forested limit the longevity of this carbon sink, and while a plethora of studies have quantified vegetation changes over the last decades, the remaining carbon sink potential of this area is currently unknown. Here, we train a model with multiple predictors characterizing the heterogeneous landscapes of southern China and predict the biomass carbon carrying capacity of the region for 2002–2017. We compare observed and predicted biomass carbon density and find that during about two decades of afforestation, 2.34 PgC have been sequestered between 2002 and 2017, and a total of 5.32 Pg carbon can potentially still be sequestrated. This means that the region has reached 73% of its aboveground biomass carbon carrying capacity in 2017, which is 12% more than in 2002, equal to a decrease of 0.77% per year. We identify potential afforestation areas that can still sequester 2.39 PgC, while old and new forests have reached 87% of their potential with 1.85 PgC remaining. Our work locates areas where vegetation has not yet reached its full potential but also shows that afforestation is not a long-term solution for climate change mitigation.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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