{"title":"出乎意料的寿命、代际政策和生育率。","authors":"Jisoo Hwang, Seok Ki Kim","doi":"10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper studies the dynamic effects of longevity on intergenerational policies and fertility, distinguishing between effects of <i>expected</i> and <i>unexpected</i> longevity gains. Old agents become poorer from unexpected longevity gains than from expected gains, as they cannot prepare (save) for the former in advance. In an overlapping-generations model with means-tested pay-as-you-go social security, we show that young agents reduce their fertility when longevity increases because they need to save more for their old age (\"life-cycle effect\"), and in the unexpected case, they also need to pay taxes to support the impoverished elderly (\"policy effect\"). Using cross-country panel data on mortality rates and social expenditure, we find that an unexpected increase in life expectancy at age 65 lowers total fertility rate growth and government family-related spending growth while raising government old-age spending growth.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3.</p>","PeriodicalId":48013,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Population Economics","volume":"36 3","pages":"1607-1640"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10027599/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Unexpected longevity, intergenerational policies, and fertility.\",\"authors\":\"Jisoo Hwang, Seok Ki Kim\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>This paper studies the dynamic effects of longevity on intergenerational policies and fertility, distinguishing between effects of <i>expected</i> and <i>unexpected</i> longevity gains. Old agents become poorer from unexpected longevity gains than from expected gains, as they cannot prepare (save) for the former in advance. In an overlapping-generations model with means-tested pay-as-you-go social security, we show that young agents reduce their fertility when longevity increases because they need to save more for their old age (\\\"life-cycle effect\\\"), and in the unexpected case, they also need to pay taxes to support the impoverished elderly (\\\"policy effect\\\"). Using cross-country panel data on mortality rates and social expenditure, we find that an unexpected increase in life expectancy at age 65 lowers total fertility rate growth and government family-related spending growth while raising government old-age spending growth.</p><p><strong>Supplementary information: </strong>The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48013,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Population Economics\",\"volume\":\"36 3\",\"pages\":\"1607-1640\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10027599/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Population Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2023/3/21 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Population Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2023/3/21 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Unexpected longevity, intergenerational policies, and fertility.
This paper studies the dynamic effects of longevity on intergenerational policies and fertility, distinguishing between effects of expected and unexpected longevity gains. Old agents become poorer from unexpected longevity gains than from expected gains, as they cannot prepare (save) for the former in advance. In an overlapping-generations model with means-tested pay-as-you-go social security, we show that young agents reduce their fertility when longevity increases because they need to save more for their old age ("life-cycle effect"), and in the unexpected case, they also need to pay taxes to support the impoverished elderly ("policy effect"). Using cross-country panel data on mortality rates and social expenditure, we find that an unexpected increase in life expectancy at age 65 lowers total fertility rate growth and government family-related spending growth while raising government old-age spending growth.
Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Population Economics is an international quarterly that publishes original theoretical and applied research in all areas of population economics.
Micro-level topics examine individual, household or family behavior, including household formation, marriage, divorce, fertility choices, education, labor supply, migration, health, risky behavior and aging. Macro-level investigations may address such issues as economic growth with exogenous or endogenous population evolution, population policy, savings and pensions, social security, housing, and health care.
The journal also features research into economic approaches to human biology, the relationship between population dynamics and public choice, and the impact of population on the distribution of income and wealth. Lastly, readers will find papers dealing with policy issues and development problems that are relevant to population issues.The journal is published in collaboration with POP at UNU-MERIT, the Global Labor Organization (GLO) and the European Society for Population Economics (ESPE).Officially cited as: J Popul Econ Factor (RePEc): 13.576 (July 2018) Rank 69 of 2102 journals listed in RePEc
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