Sebastian D. Eastham*, Erwan Monier, Daniel Rothenberg, Sergey Paltsev and Noelle E. Selin,
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We fit individual response surfaces to high-fidelity model simulation output for 1525 locations worldwide under a variety of perturbation scenarios. Our approach captures known differences in atmospheric chemical regimes and can be straightforwardly implemented in IAMs, enabling researchers to rapidly estimate how air quality in different locations and related equity-based metrics will respond to large-scale changes in emission policy. We find that the sensitivity of air quality to climate change and air pollutant emission reductions differs in sign and magnitude by region, suggesting that calculations of “co-benefits” of climate policy that do not account for the existence of simultaneous air quality interventions can lead to inaccurate conclusions. Although reductions in global mean temperature are effective in improving air quality in many locations and sometimes yield compounding benefits, we show that the air quality impact of climate policy depends on air quality precursor emission stringency. Our approach can be extended to include results from higher-resolution modeling and also to incorporate other interventions toward sustainable development that interact with climate action and have spatially distributed equity dimensions.</p>","PeriodicalId":29801,"journal":{"name":"ACS Environmental Au","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/60/d8/vg2c00054.PMC10197161.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Rapid Estimation of Climate–Air Quality Interactions in Integrated Assessment Using a Response Surface Model\",\"authors\":\"Sebastian D. Eastham*, Erwan Monier, Daniel Rothenberg, Sergey Paltsev and Noelle E. Selin, \",\"doi\":\"10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00054\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p >Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing these challenges together. Due to the high computational cost of accurately assessing these challenges, integrated assessment models (IAMs) used in policy development often use global- or regional-scale marginal response factors to calculate air quality impacts of climate scenarios. We bridge the gap between IAMs and high-fidelity simulation by developing a computationally efficient approach to quantify how combined climate and air quality interventions affect air quality outcomes, including capturing spatial heterogeneity and complex atmospheric chemistry. We fit individual response surfaces to high-fidelity model simulation output for 1525 locations worldwide under a variety of perturbation scenarios. Our approach captures known differences in atmospheric chemical regimes and can be straightforwardly implemented in IAMs, enabling researchers to rapidly estimate how air quality in different locations and related equity-based metrics will respond to large-scale changes in emission policy. We find that the sensitivity of air quality to climate change and air pollutant emission reductions differs in sign and magnitude by region, suggesting that calculations of “co-benefits” of climate policy that do not account for the existence of simultaneous air quality interventions can lead to inaccurate conclusions. Although reductions in global mean temperature are effective in improving air quality in many locations and sometimes yield compounding benefits, we show that the air quality impact of climate policy depends on air quality precursor emission stringency. Our approach can be extended to include results from higher-resolution modeling and also to incorporate other interventions toward sustainable development that interact with climate action and have spatially distributed equity dimensions.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":29801,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACS Environmental Au\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-02-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/60/d8/vg2c00054.PMC10197161.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACS Environmental Au\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00054\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Environmental Au","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00054","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Rapid Estimation of Climate–Air Quality Interactions in Integrated Assessment Using a Response Surface Model
Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing these challenges together. Due to the high computational cost of accurately assessing these challenges, integrated assessment models (IAMs) used in policy development often use global- or regional-scale marginal response factors to calculate air quality impacts of climate scenarios. We bridge the gap between IAMs and high-fidelity simulation by developing a computationally efficient approach to quantify how combined climate and air quality interventions affect air quality outcomes, including capturing spatial heterogeneity and complex atmospheric chemistry. We fit individual response surfaces to high-fidelity model simulation output for 1525 locations worldwide under a variety of perturbation scenarios. Our approach captures known differences in atmospheric chemical regimes and can be straightforwardly implemented in IAMs, enabling researchers to rapidly estimate how air quality in different locations and related equity-based metrics will respond to large-scale changes in emission policy. We find that the sensitivity of air quality to climate change and air pollutant emission reductions differs in sign and magnitude by region, suggesting that calculations of “co-benefits” of climate policy that do not account for the existence of simultaneous air quality interventions can lead to inaccurate conclusions. Although reductions in global mean temperature are effective in improving air quality in many locations and sometimes yield compounding benefits, we show that the air quality impact of climate policy depends on air quality precursor emission stringency. Our approach can be extended to include results from higher-resolution modeling and also to incorporate other interventions toward sustainable development that interact with climate action and have spatially distributed equity dimensions.
期刊介绍:
ACS Environmental Au is an open access journal which publishes experimental research and theoretical results in all aspects of environmental science and technology both pure and applied. Short letters comprehensive articles reviews and perspectives are welcome in the following areas:Alternative EnergyAnthropogenic Impacts on Atmosphere Soil or WaterBiogeochemical CyclingBiomass or Wastes as ResourcesContaminants in Aquatic and Terrestrial EnvironmentsEnvironmental Data ScienceEcotoxicology and Public HealthEnergy and ClimateEnvironmental Modeling Processes and Measurement Methods and TechnologiesEnvironmental Nanotechnology and BiotechnologyGreen ChemistryGreen Manufacturing and EngineeringRisk assessment Regulatory Frameworks and Life-Cycle AssessmentsTreatment and Resource Recovery and Waste Management