Using progesterone to follicular index ratio is better correlated with intracytoplasmic sperm injection outcome than using serum progesterone level alone.

Objectives: to investigate the possibility of using the ratio of serum progesterone level to the number of follicles, according to ovarian response in the day of human chorionic gonadotrophin trigger, as a predictor of cycle outcome.

Material and methods: A prospective intervensional study was conducted at Kamal Al-Samarai Hospital for Infertility Treatment and IVF during the period from December 2020 to September 2021. Ninety infertile women underwent intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles using antagonist protocol. Moreover, once the patient reached triggering criteria, meticulous recording of follicular index together with serum estrogen level and serum progesterone level are measured. Fresh embryo transfer of cleavage stage embryo is done once serum progesterone level was less than 1.5 ng/mL. A follow-up to confirm pregnancy rate and cycle outcome was done.

Results: The study showed a positive pregnancy rate of 28.9%. The relationship between progesterone follicular index (Prog/FI) ratio and (ICSI) outcome was highly significant with a p value of 0.001. Additionally, an inverse relationship, as the ratio was lower the pregnancy rate was improved, was documented. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for progesterone follicular index ratio was 0.711 with a cut off value of 0.0354 ng/mL in addition to a sensitivity of 65.6 and a specificity of 65.4.

Conclusions: The serum progesterone level is an independent factor for the prediction of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) outcome, whereas the progesterone follicular index ratio can be used as a potential marker for predicting ICSI outcome in fresh embryo transfer.