Clinal variation in phenological traits and fitness responses to drought across the native range of California poppy

Increased aridity, associated with climate change, is predicted worldwide in the coming decades. Species persistence in the face of climate change is thought to be influenced by plasticity, potential for adaptation, and dependence on non-climatic factors, but their relative importance has rarely been quantified. We investigated 13 populations of Eschscholzia californica (California poppy) distributed across a fourfold gradient in annual precipitation. In a greenhouse, plants received precipitation treatments approximating the wettest and driest sites, crossed with the presence and absence of soil inoculum from their collection location. We documented clinal variation across populations; plants from southern populations (arid sites) emerged later, flowered earlier, had shorter growing seasons, higher mean fitness, higher reproductive effort, and were more drought tolerant than plants from northern populations (mesic sites). A second experiment demonstrated clinal variation in biomass allocation, with higher root allocation in northern populations. We found no evidence of adaptive phenological plasticity to drought; instead, the drought treatment decreased fitness and growing season length (maladaptive phenological plasticity) more for plants from mesic than arid sites. Individuals grown with home soil inoculation produced 10% more biomass than when grown in common garden soil; however, the influence of soil was small relative to the 13-fold variation across populations in fitness responses to drought. Our results suggest that restoration efforts involving California poppy may benefit from assisted gene flow; sourcing seeds from arid parts of the species range may improve individual fitness and population persistence of this iconic species in the face of future climate change.