Soumyajit Sarkar, Abhijit Mukherjee*, Balaji Senapati and Srimanti Duttagupta,
{"title":"预测气候变化对南亚集约化耕地地下水硝酸盐污染的潜在影响及其风险","authors":"Soumyajit Sarkar, Abhijit Mukherjee*, Balaji Senapati and Srimanti Duttagupta, ","doi":"10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00042","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p >One of the potential impacts of climate change is enhanced groundwater contamination by geogenic and anthropogenic contaminants. Such impacts should be most evident in areas with high land-use change footprint. Here, we provide a novel documentation of the impact on groundwater nitrate (GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub>) pollution with and without climate change in one of the most intensely groundwater-irrigated areas of South Asia (northwest India) as a consequence of changes in land use and agricultural practices at present and predicted future times. We assessed the probabilistic risk of GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> pollution considering climate changes under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2040, using a machine learning (Random Forest) framework. We also evaluated variations in GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> distribution against a no climate change (NCC) scenario considering 2020 status quo climate conditions. The climate change projections showed that the annual temperatures would rise under both RCPs. The precipitation is predicted to rise by 5% under RCP 8.5 by 2040, while it would decline under RCP 4.5. The predicted scenarios indicate that the areas at high risk of GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> pollution will increase to 49 and 50% in 2030 and 66 and 65% in 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. These predictions are higher compared to the NCC condition (43% in 2030 and 60% in 2040). However, the areas at high risk can decrease significantly by 2040 with restricted fertilizer usage, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The risk maps identified the central, south, and southeastern parts of the study area to be at persistent high risk of GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> pollution. The outcomes show that the climate factors may impose a significant influence on the GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> pollution, and if fertilizer inputs and land uses are not managed properly, future climate change scenarios can critically impact the groundwater quality in highly agrarian areas.</p>","PeriodicalId":29801,"journal":{"name":"ACS Environmental Au","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7000,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/ca/1b/vg2c00042.PMC10125289.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting Potential Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Nitrate Pollution and Risk in an Intensely Cultivated Area of South Asia\",\"authors\":\"Soumyajit Sarkar, Abhijit Mukherjee*, Balaji Senapati and Srimanti Duttagupta, \",\"doi\":\"10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00042\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p >One of the potential impacts of climate change is enhanced groundwater contamination by geogenic and anthropogenic contaminants. Such impacts should be most evident in areas with high land-use change footprint. Here, we provide a novel documentation of the impact on groundwater nitrate (GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub>) pollution with and without climate change in one of the most intensely groundwater-irrigated areas of South Asia (northwest India) as a consequence of changes in land use and agricultural practices at present and predicted future times. We assessed the probabilistic risk of GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> pollution considering climate changes under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2040, using a machine learning (Random Forest) framework. We also evaluated variations in GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> distribution against a no climate change (NCC) scenario considering 2020 status quo climate conditions. The climate change projections showed that the annual temperatures would rise under both RCPs. The precipitation is predicted to rise by 5% under RCP 8.5 by 2040, while it would decline under RCP 4.5. The predicted scenarios indicate that the areas at high risk of GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> pollution will increase to 49 and 50% in 2030 and 66 and 65% in 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. These predictions are higher compared to the NCC condition (43% in 2030 and 60% in 2040). However, the areas at high risk can decrease significantly by 2040 with restricted fertilizer usage, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The risk maps identified the central, south, and southeastern parts of the study area to be at persistent high risk of GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> pollution. The outcomes show that the climate factors may impose a significant influence on the GW<sub>NO<sub>3</sub></sub> pollution, and if fertilizer inputs and land uses are not managed properly, future climate change scenarios can critically impact the groundwater quality in highly agrarian areas.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":29801,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACS Environmental Au\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/ca/1b/vg2c00042.PMC10125289.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACS Environmental Au\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00042\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Environmental Au","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenvironau.2c00042","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting Potential Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Nitrate Pollution and Risk in an Intensely Cultivated Area of South Asia
One of the potential impacts of climate change is enhanced groundwater contamination by geogenic and anthropogenic contaminants. Such impacts should be most evident in areas with high land-use change footprint. Here, we provide a novel documentation of the impact on groundwater nitrate (GWNO3) pollution with and without climate change in one of the most intensely groundwater-irrigated areas of South Asia (northwest India) as a consequence of changes in land use and agricultural practices at present and predicted future times. We assessed the probabilistic risk of GWNO3 pollution considering climate changes under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2040, using a machine learning (Random Forest) framework. We also evaluated variations in GWNO3 distribution against a no climate change (NCC) scenario considering 2020 status quo climate conditions. The climate change projections showed that the annual temperatures would rise under both RCPs. The precipitation is predicted to rise by 5% under RCP 8.5 by 2040, while it would decline under RCP 4.5. The predicted scenarios indicate that the areas at high risk of GWNO3 pollution will increase to 49 and 50% in 2030 and 66 and 65% in 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. These predictions are higher compared to the NCC condition (43% in 2030 and 60% in 2040). However, the areas at high risk can decrease significantly by 2040 with restricted fertilizer usage, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The risk maps identified the central, south, and southeastern parts of the study area to be at persistent high risk of GWNO3 pollution. The outcomes show that the climate factors may impose a significant influence on the GWNO3 pollution, and if fertilizer inputs and land uses are not managed properly, future climate change scenarios can critically impact the groundwater quality in highly agrarian areas.
期刊介绍:
ACS Environmental Au is an open access journal which publishes experimental research and theoretical results in all aspects of environmental science and technology both pure and applied. Short letters comprehensive articles reviews and perspectives are welcome in the following areas:Alternative EnergyAnthropogenic Impacts on Atmosphere Soil or WaterBiogeochemical CyclingBiomass or Wastes as ResourcesContaminants in Aquatic and Terrestrial EnvironmentsEnvironmental Data ScienceEcotoxicology and Public HealthEnergy and ClimateEnvironmental Modeling Processes and Measurement Methods and TechnologiesEnvironmental Nanotechnology and BiotechnologyGreen ChemistryGreen Manufacturing and EngineeringRisk assessment Regulatory Frameworks and Life-Cycle AssessmentsTreatment and Resource Recovery and Waste Management