[The estimated economic impact of cardiovascular and diabetes mellitus complications 2019-2028].

Background: In Mexico, diabetes mellitus (DM) and diseases cardiovascular, register an upward trend.

Objective: To estimate the number of complications due to cardiovascular events (CVD) and complications derived from DM (CDM) accumulated in beneficiaries of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) from 2019 to 2028, as well as the expense for medical and economic benefits in a scenario baseline and one of change in metabolic profile due to lack of medical follow-up during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Material and methods: The number of CVD and CDM was estimated from 2019, with a 10-year risk projection using the ESC CVD Risk Calculator and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study, considering risk factors registered in the institutional databases.

Results: From 2019 to 2028, cumulative CVD cases were estimated at 2 million and those of CDM in 960 thousand, with an impact on medical spending of 439,523 million pesos and on the economic benefits of 174,085 millions. When considering the COVID-19 pandemic, CVD events and CDM increased by 589 thousand, with an increase in spending of 93,787 million pesos for medical care and 41,159 million for economic benefits.

Conclusions: Without a comprehensive intervention in the management of CVD and CDM, the cost by both diseases will continue to increase, with financial pressures getting older.