酒精控制政策对立陶宛出血性和缺血性中风死亡率的影响:间断时间序列分析

IF 2.2 4区 医学 Q3 SUBSTANCE ABUSE
Kawon Victoria Kim, Jürgen Rehm, Xinyang Feng, Huan Jiang, Jakob Manthey, Ričardas Radišauskas, Mindaugas Štelemėkas, Alexander Tran, Anush Zafar, Shannon Lange
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引用次数: 0

摘要

鉴于饮酒对中风的因果影响,酒精控制政策理应降低中风死亡率。本研究旨在检验立陶宛于 2008 年、2017 年和 2018 年实施的三大酒精控制政策对 15 岁以上人群的性别和中风亚型死亡率的影响。对每个性别和中风亚型特定组进行了连接点回归分析,以确定与死亡率趋势显著变化相对应的时间点。为估算每项政策的影响,使用广义加性混合模型对 2001 年 1 月至 2018 年 12 月期间每月性别和中风亚型特异性年龄标准化死亡率进行了间断时间序列分析。结果发现,所有性别和中风亚型特异性死亡率趋势的年均百分比都有显著下降。酒精控制政策对女性缺血性中风死亡率的影响最大。2008 年政策颁布后,每 10 万名女性缺血性中风死亡人数出现了 4498 例的正水平变化,而每月的负斜率变化为每 10 万名女性缺血性中风死亡人数-0.048 例。在 2017 年和 2018 年政策颁布时间点,女性缺血性中风死亡率都出现了显著的负水平变化,分别为每 10 万人-0.901 例死亡和-1.431 例死亡。男性出血性中风死亡率不受任何政策的影响,女性出血性中风死亡率和男性缺血性中风死亡率仅与 2008 年的政策有关。我们的研究结果表明,酒精控制政策对中风死亡率的影响可能因性别和亚型而异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of alcohol control policy on hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality rates in Lithuania: An interrupted time series analysis.

Given the causal impact of alcohol use on stroke, alcohol control policies should presumably reduce stroke mortality rates. This study aimed to test the impact of three major Lithuanian alcohol control policies implemented in 2008, 2017 and 2018 on sex- and stroke subtype-specific mortality rates, among individuals 15+ years-old. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed for each sex- and stroke subtype-specific group to identify timepoints corresponding with significant changes in mortality rate trends. To estimate the impact of each policy, interrupted time series analyses using a generalized additive mixed model were performed on monthly sex- and stroke subtype-specific age-standardized mortality rates from January 2001-December 2018. Significant average annual percent decreases were found for all sex- and stroke subtype-specific mortality rate trends. The alcohol control policies were most impactful on ischemic stroke mortality rates among women. The 2008 policy was followed by a positive level change of 4,498 ischemic stroke deaths per 100,000 women and a negative monthly slope change of -0.048 ischemic stroke deaths per 100,000 women. Both the 2017 and 2018 policy enactment timepoints coincided with a significant negative level change for ischemic stroke mortality rates among women, at -0.901 deaths and -1.431 deaths per 100,000 population, respectively. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality among men was not affected by any of the policies, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality among women and ischemic stroke mortality among men were only associated with the 2008 policy. Our study findings suggest that the impact of alcohol control policies on stroke mortality may vary by sex and subtype.

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来源期刊
Adicciones
Adicciones SUBSTANCE ABUSE-
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
10.00%
发文量
36
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Adicciones publica artículos originales sobre el tratamiento, la prevención, estudios básicos y descriptivos en el campo de las adicciones, como son las drogas ilegales, el alcohol, el tabaco o cualquier otra adicción, procedentes de distintas disciplinas (medicina, psicología, investigación básica, investigación social, etc.). Todos los artículos son seleccionados después de pasar un proceso de revisión anónimo hecho por expertos en ese tema.
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